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Arthur Hayes Dumps HYPE, Says Hyperliquid's Buyback Engine Could Falter if Wall Street Moves In
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is warning that Hyperliquid's breakout run in perpetual futures may be entering a tougher phase, with traditional finance and major centralized exchanges increasingly positioned to challenge its lead.
Hyperliquid emerged in 2023 and rapidly became a favored venue for trading perpetuals tied to less liquid markets and real-world assets (RWAs). Its token, HYPE, pushed to new all-time highs last week as the protocol recycled trading-fee revenue into token buybacks and subsequent burns to tighten supply.
In an interview with Decrypt, Hayes argued the approach is vulnerable because it ultimately relies on fee generation. "At the end of the day, this is a cash story," he said, adding that any sharp loss of market share would weaken the buyback mechanism that has helped support HYPE's price.
Key data and timeline
- Hyperliquid broadened its RWA perpetuals offering in an October upgrade, adding contracts including gold and silver.
- The platform says outstanding positions tied to those markets have reached $3 billion.
- Hyperliquid has bought back about 26.6 million HYPE and permanently removed 579,603 HYPE from circulation. At current prices, the buyback total equates to roughly $1.56 billion.
- HYPE traded around $59 on Sunday, down about 14% over seven days after topping $75 for an all-time high last week, according to CoinGecko.
Hayes has been among the most visible commentators on Hyperliquid's ascent, previously crediting it for enabling weekend price discovery in markets such as oil. His view on competition is less forgiving. He expects incumbent centralized exchanges and TradFi venues to introduce rival perpetual swap products, arguing they will be "forced to launch a competing product" and forecasting that "decently liquid" TradFi perps could arrive as soon as next year.
Why perpetuals matter
Perpetual futures, or "perps," allow traders to maintain positions indefinitely by paying or receiving periodic funding, rather than trading contracts with fixed expiries. Hayes' BitMEX helped popularize the modern perpetual contract in 2016, though the concept of continuing contracts stretches back decades.
Hyperliquid's advantage has been its ability to list perps on thinner, real-world markets—often most active over weekends—and convert that flow into a buyback-and-burn loop.
A sudden reversal: Hayes sells
One day after the Decrypt interview, Hayes posted on X that he had "just dumped" his HYPE holdings, along with another token. He pointed to macro and market factors—rising energy costs, a wave of IPOs that drains liquidity, and a shift in President Trump's stance on AI—as reasons for taking profits.
The sale came less than two months after Hayes published an essay projecting HYPE would reach $150 by August 2026, a sharp reversal that sparked mixed reactions in the community.
What's at stake
Hayes' core point is that Hyperliquid's scarcity strategy depends on consistent fee inflows. If liquidity shifts to centralized exchanges or TradFi platforms offering comparable perpetual products backed by deeper capital, Hyperliquid's buyback engine could slow—leaving HYPE more exposed to downside pressure. Hyperliquid's RWA expansion and buyback totals remain notable, but Hayes' warning highlights a tightening contest between fast-moving DeFi builders and legacy financial players for control of the derivatives market.