On New Year's Day, trader Vida reportedly earned over $1.5 million by trading around an abnormal $26 million bid wall on Binance for the small-cap token BROCCOLI714. Vida shifted from an arbitrage hedge to directional longs and later shorts as Binance's circuit breakers distorted spot-futures prices and the bid wall disappeared. The episode raised questions about the source of the orders and how the exchange's risk controls functioned under extreme conditions.

Polymarket prediction markets currently reflect a cautious stance on Bitcoin's upside in 2026, with traders assigning relatively low odds to a $150,000 price despite higher confidence in a move to $100,000. At the same time, several research teams and strategists project that Bitcoin could climb to $150,000 or even into a $200,000–$250,000 range if monetary easing, regulatory progress, and institutional demand align. This divergence underscores a gap between on-chain betting behavior and more optimistic analyst forecasts as macro, political, and regulatory factors evolve.

Bitcoin’s trend may have flipped to a bear phase in November after slipping below its one-year moving average, with internal indicators remaining weak since. The price traded around $88,794 at press time, and a potential bottom is estimated in the $56,000–$60,000 range, implying about a 55% drawdown from the all-time high.

More than $2.2 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expiring in the first major derivatives settlement of 2026, with Bitcoin trading near $88,691 and Ethereum around $3,023. The options data show a bullish tilt, as BTC and ETH both sit slightly above their respective max pain levels and call contracts outnumber puts, raising the potential for notable price swings once the expiry passes.

The Federal Reserve released minutes on Dec. 30 from its Dec. 9–10 meeting, flagging rising liquidity risks and fragility in short‑term funding, according to the record. Officials weighed technical T‑bill purchases near $220 billion and repo facility tweaks, while, as of Jan. 2, traders saw an 85.1% chance the 3.50%–3.75% target range holds into Jan. 27–28, 2026.

On 2 January 2026 at 09:12, CryptoQuant detailed three potential trajectories for Bitcoin, balancing liquidity shifts, policy timing, and investor behavior. The least likely case targets an advance toward $170,000, while the base case favors extended range trading. A third path considers recession risk and tighter financial conditions, which could drive a deeper correction.

According to a16z crypto's 2026 outlook, blockchain is expected to fade into the background as core infrastructure while AI agents, on-chain credit origination, and privacy-centric networks reshape the ecosystem. The report highlights KYAs for autonomous agents, a move from tokenized RWAs to programmable credit, and zero-knowledge-based privacy as key competitive advantages.

In November, Infinex and Synthetix founder Kain Warwick wagered at 10:1 odds with Kyle Samani that Ether would reach $25,000 by the end of 2025, leaving him owing $50,000 after the target was missed. Ether instead finished Dec. 31 at about $2,980 after an October downturn, and Warwick has now revised his 2026 goal to a more modest $10,000, while other analysts had also floated year-end targets around $10,000.