Bitcoin approached $90,000 into the first U.S. trading session of 2026, with a fresh CME futures gap and long‑liquidation clusters near $88,000 signaling potential downside. Liquidity and cross‑crypto liquidations exceeded $200 million ahead of the Wall Street open. Gold rebounded after its New Year's Eve dip, edging back toward all‑time highs and highlighting 2025's divergence.

On January 1, 2026, Bloomberg Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone outlined a base-case scenario of heightened market stress, comparing Donald Trump’s presidential timing to Herbert Hoover’s and calling for a third down year for U.S. stocks since 2008. He argued that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies likely topped out, seeing a move to $50,000 as more probable than a surge above $100,000, while also expecting gold’s 2025 outperformance to fade and U.S. T-bonds to take over as the main source of alpha.

Bitcoin miner Cango secured a fresh $10.5 million commitment from Enduring Wealth Capital Limited and saw its shares up more than 3% in pre‑market ahead of its first full trading day. The deal supports Cango's 50 EH/s operations and 2026 AI/HPC expansion, with analysts assigning $3–$4 targets and citing significant undervaluation.

The Federal Reserve conducted a $74.6 billion overnight repo operation at the start of the year, while Bitcoin posted a 1.41% New Year rise. Traders are treating the liquidity surge, the largest single-day repo since the 2020 COVID shock, as a market signal. Silver's margin hike and a near 7% drop add to stress concerns and frame expectations for Bitcoin's 2026 outlook.

CryptoQuant's head of research Julio Moreno argues Bitcoin has likely been in a bear market for about two months after several indicators turned negative in early November and the price fell below its one-year moving average. He sees a potential bottom near the realized price in the $56,000–$60,000 range, implying a drawdown of roughly 55% from the all-time high, while recent options data and institutional ETF flows point to cautious sentiment but fewer shock events than in 2022.

According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin is holding around $88–89K while derivatives taker-flow metrics weaken in tandem. Cumulative Flow Z sits in the -1 to -2σ range and Ratio Z SMA(30) reads -0.3; a sustained drop of Flow Z below -2 with Ratio Z below -0.4 could open risk toward the $85–87K zone.

Polymarket prediction markets currently reflect a cautious stance on Bitcoin's upside in 2026, with traders assigning relatively low odds to a $150,000 price despite higher confidence in a move to $100,000. At the same time, several research teams and strategists project that Bitcoin could climb to $150,000 or even into a $200,000–$250,000 range if monetary easing, regulatory progress, and institutional demand align. This divergence underscores a gap between on-chain betting behavior and more optimistic analyst forecasts as macro, political, and regulatory factors evolve.

Bitcoin’s trend may have flipped to a bear phase in November after slipping below its one-year moving average, with internal indicators remaining weak since. The price traded around $88,794 at press time, and a potential bottom is estimated in the $56,000–$60,000 range, implying about a 55% drawdown from the all-time high.