CryptoQuant's head of research Julio Moreno argues Bitcoin has likely been in a bear market for about two months after several indicators turned negative in early November and the price fell below its one-year moving average. He sees a potential bottom near the realized price in the $56,000–$60,000 range, implying a drawdown of roughly 55% from the all-time high, while recent options data and institutional ETF flows point to cautious sentiment but fewer shock events than in 2022.

According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin is holding around $88–89K while derivatives taker-flow metrics weaken in tandem. Cumulative Flow Z sits in the -1 to -2σ range and Ratio Z SMA(30) reads -0.3; a sustained drop of Flow Z below -2 with Ratio Z below -0.4 could open risk toward the $85–87K zone.

Polymarket prediction markets currently reflect a cautious stance on Bitcoin's upside in 2026, with traders assigning relatively low odds to a $150,000 price despite higher confidence in a move to $100,000. At the same time, several research teams and strategists project that Bitcoin could climb to $150,000 or even into a $200,000–$250,000 range if monetary easing, regulatory progress, and institutional demand align. This divergence underscores a gap between on-chain betting behavior and more optimistic analyst forecasts as macro, political, and regulatory factors evolve.

Bitcoin’s trend may have flipped to a bear phase in November after slipping below its one-year moving average, with internal indicators remaining weak since. The price traded around $88,794 at press time, and a potential bottom is estimated in the $56,000–$60,000 range, implying about a 55% drawdown from the all-time high.

More than $2.2 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expiring in the first major derivatives settlement of 2026, with Bitcoin trading near $88,691 and Ethereum around $3,023. The options data show a bullish tilt, as BTC and ETH both sit slightly above their respective max pain levels and call contracts outnumber puts, raising the potential for notable price swings once the expiry passes.

On 2 January 2026 at 09:12, CryptoQuant detailed three potential trajectories for Bitcoin, balancing liquidity shifts, policy timing, and investor behavior. The least likely case targets an advance toward $170,000, while the base case favors extended range trading. A third path considers recession risk and tighter financial conditions, which could drive a deeper correction.

On Thursday, CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno said Bitcoin may have entered a bear market in early November after multiple technical and on-chain signals flipped negative. He highlighted a drop below the one-year moving average as the key trigger and projected a potential bottom between $56,000 and $60,000. As of Friday, BTC traded near $88,500.

On Thursday, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said most indicators in his bull score index for Bitcoin flipped bearish in early November, suggesting the market has been in a downtrend for about two months. With Bitcoin trading near $88,543 on Friday after peaking at $126,080 in October 2025, he expects the bear market low in 2026 to form around $56,000 to $60,000, based on the realized price and historical cycles.