With BTC near $89,260 at press time, on-chain analyst Ali Martinez said on January 1 he spotted a "death cross" using the 10- and 50-day SMAs and, in a January 2, 2026 post, warned it has preceded 53%–67% drops. He sees a correction toward $38,000–$50,000. Bloomberg's Mike McGlone also expects a move toward $50,000 in 2026.

From Dec. 15 to Dec. 31, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.29 billion in net outflows, translating to about 14,500 BTC in selling pressure at a Bitcoin price near $89,000. Flows data show heavy redemptions spread across the complex, with IBIT making up nearly half of the net outflow, while just two sessions of strong inflows failed to offset several sharp withdrawal days amid thin year-end liquidity and macro uncertainty. The pattern has fueled debate over whether these ETFs function as long-term allocation vehicles or short-term trading tools as markets move into early 2026.

On 2 January 2026, Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone outlined a 2026 base-case where risk assets come under renewed pressure and long-dated U.S. Treasurys quietly regain appeal. He sees Bitcoin as more likely to revisit the $50,000 zone than to sustain a break above $100,000, while U.S. equities could even face a rare third straight losing year. In this scenario, mean reversion, volatility and tactical trading replace the broad bull-market momentum that dominated prior cycles.

Polymarket prediction markets currently assign Bitcoin a 21% chance of touching $150,000 before 2027, with expectations clustered around a peak between $100,000 and $120,000. Analysts are divided, with some projecting a major rally in 2026 that could lift BTC as high as $150,000 to $250,000, while others argue that growing Bitcoin options and covered call activity is constraining price upside.

Bitcoin approached $90,000 into the first U.S. trading session of 2026, with a fresh CME futures gap and long‑liquidation clusters near $88,000 signaling potential downside. Liquidity and cross‑crypto liquidations exceeded $200 million ahead of the Wall Street open. Gold rebounded after its New Year's Eve dip, edging back toward all‑time highs and highlighting 2025's divergence.

On January 1, 2026, Bloomberg Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone outlined a base-case scenario of heightened market stress, comparing Donald Trump’s presidential timing to Herbert Hoover’s and calling for a third down year for U.S. stocks since 2008. He argued that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies likely topped out, seeing a move to $50,000 as more probable than a surge above $100,000, while also expecting gold’s 2025 outperformance to fade and U.S. T-bonds to take over as the main source of alpha.

Bitcoin miner Cango secured a fresh $10.5 million commitment from Enduring Wealth Capital Limited and saw its shares up more than 3% in pre‑market ahead of its first full trading day. The deal supports Cango's 50 EH/s operations and 2026 AI/HPC expansion, with analysts assigning $3–$4 targets and citing significant undervaluation.

The Federal Reserve conducted a $74.6 billion overnight repo operation at the start of the year, while Bitcoin posted a 1.41% New Year rise. Traders are treating the liquidity surge, the largest single-day repo since the 2020 COVID shock, as a market signal. Silver's margin hike and a near 7% drop add to stress concerns and frame expectations for Bitcoin's 2026 outlook.