Technical Analysis

With BTC near $89,260 at press time, on-chain analyst Ali Martinez said on January 1 he spotted a "death cross" using the 10- and 50-day SMAs and, in a January 2, 2026 post, warned it has preceded 53%–67% drops. He sees a correction toward $38,000–$50,000. Bloomberg's Mike McGlone also expects a move toward $50,000 in 2026.

Polymarket prediction markets currently assign Bitcoin a 21% chance of touching $150,000 before 2027, with expectations clustered around a peak between $100,000 and $120,000. Analysts are divided, with some projecting a major rally in 2026 that could lift BTC as high as $150,000 to $250,000, while others argue that growing Bitcoin options and covered call activity is constraining price upside.

Bitcoin approached $90,000 into the first U.S. trading session of 2026, with a fresh CME futures gap and long‑liquidation clusters near $88,000 signaling potential downside. Liquidity and cross‑crypto liquidations exceeded $200 million ahead of the Wall Street open. Gold rebounded after its New Year's Eve dip, edging back toward all‑time highs and highlighting 2025's divergence.

According to CoinGlass figures cited by Ted Pillows, Ethereum logged losses in nine of twelve months in 2025, its most persistent slump since 2018. As of early January 2026, ETH trades near $3,020, up 1.6% on the day and down 11.2% year over year, with technicians eyeing $3,000 and the 200-day average.

CryptoQuant's head of research Julio Moreno argues Bitcoin has likely been in a bear market for about two months after several indicators turned negative in early November and the price fell below its one-year moving average. He sees a potential bottom near the realized price in the $56,000–$60,000 range, implying a drawdown of roughly 55% from the all-time high, while recent options data and institutional ETF flows point to cautious sentiment but fewer shock events than in 2022.

PEPE rallied 26.9% over the past 24 hours alongside a 300% jump in daily volume, while Bitcoin edged back toward the $90k resistance. Friday's session close is flagged as pivotal for swing traders, with a daily close above $0.000005 viewed as a bullish structure shift and $0.0000062 cited as the next resistance level.

On January 2, XRP turned daily gains of about 1.7% after losing over 20% during the previous month and dropping behind BNB in market cap. A macro buy signal from the TD Sequential indicator has appeared, hinting at a possible rebound while XRP still trades under the key $1.90 resistance. Despite a mid‑2025 surge to a new all‑time high and the launch of several US spot XRP ETFs, the token ultimately closed 2025 in negative territory.

According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin is holding around $88–89K while derivatives taker-flow metrics weaken in tandem. Cumulative Flow Z sits in the -1 to -2σ range and Ratio Z SMA(30) reads -0.3; a sustained drop of Flow Z below -2 with Ratio Z below -0.4 could open risk toward the $85–87K zone.

Bitcoin’s trend may have flipped to a bear phase in November after slipping below its one-year moving average, with internal indicators remaining weak since. The price traded around $88,794 at press time, and a potential bottom is estimated in the $56,000–$60,000 range, implying about a 55% drawdown from the all-time high.

More than $2.2 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are expiring in the first major derivatives settlement of 2026, with Bitcoin trading near $88,691 and Ethereum around $3,023. The options data show a bullish tilt, as BTC and ETH both sit slightly above their respective max pain levels and call contracts outnumber puts, raising the potential for notable price swings once the expiry passes.