Technical Analysis

Bitcoin is trading around $86,700 as it approaches the end of 2025, hovering on the 100-week simple moving average that has preceded major cycle corrections. Analysts note that previous breaks below this level led to 35%–55% declines, with some warning of potential moves toward $35,000–$50,000 while others point to whale long positions as a sign of a possible new bull phase.

On Dec. 29, 2025, CryptoQuant's Maartunn highlighted Zcash's renewed jump as a pattern that has often preceded Bitcoin weakness. CoinGlass data the same day showed XRP's one-hour window with $0 in short liquidations as longs lost over $20,000, while Monero drew an 80% cup-and-handle target if a breakout holds. TradingView charts captured ZEC's quick move from about $460 to $520 and XRP's drift from $1.90 to $1.87.

Bitcoin recently pulled back from a cycle peak near $125,000 and is now trading around $88,000 after briefly exceeding $90,000, while gold and silver are advancing to fresh highs. The article attributes this divergence to a recurring market pattern in which capital first flows into defensive assets like precious metals before rotating into higher-risk assets such as crypto. Technical indicators such as RSI in the mid-40s, easing volume, and a recovering MACD suggest consolidation rather than a breakdown, with some prior cycles showing strong Bitcoin rallies after metals lose momentum.

At the start of the final week of 2025, Bitcoin failed to establish $90,000 as support while trading around $88,037 and closing in on the yearly candle. Derivatives data showed elevated volatility after a $24 billion options expiry, onchain metrics highlighted key realized price levels near $99,785, and Bitfinex whales pushed BTC long positions to their highest level in nearly two years as they position for 2026. Traditional markets and precious metals hit fresh highs while crypto lagged, but whale spot activity and large order sizes suggested accumulating demand, even as Bitcoin’s nearly 40% pullback from its $126,200 all-time high kept sentiment cautious.

The global crypto market held above $3 trillion as thin year-end liquidity kept prices range-bound, with Bitcoin consolidating below $90,000 and Ethereum tracking sideways near $3,000. As short-term momentum faded, investor focus shifted toward structural themes shaping 2026, including institutional adoption, derivatives dominance, DeFi governance reforms, and growing interest in tokenized real-world assets such as gold and silver.

According to Axel Adler Jr., three months of on-chain data show that Bitcoin's realized losses have dropped from a 7-day average of $2.4B in late November to $0.5B, an 80% reduction from capitulation levels. November 21–22 saw z-scores as high as 8.7–10.9 and daily losses above $5B, while later spikes with z-score near 1–2 are framed as normal volatility rather than renewed distress. Net realized profit/loss remains negative but is trending toward the zero line, which the analysis views as a condition for a potential local recovery if new demand appears.

Polkadot (DOT) has been in a broader decline since March 2025, yet it advanced 4.41% over the past week. TradingView charts indicate an H4 bullish shift after breaks above $1.75 and $1.85, opening room toward the $2 area and possibly $2.5, while Bitcoin faces resistance near $90k and a move below $1.82 would invalidate the bounce.

Bitcoin is trading in a narrow band between $85,000 and $92,000, where resistance is increasingly used by investors to exit positions. On-chain metrics show only about 65% of supply in profit and sentiment indicators have turned bearish, while analysts warn a breakdown could send the price toward the low-volume zone near $75,000. The current fragile phase began in early November and could persist before any decisive move unfolds.

HBAR advanced 4% as Hedera's on-chain usage accelerated. Recent readings showed testnet throughput at 44 TPS and mainnet hitting 100 three days earlier. New accounts climbed to 2,620, up 72.9% from 1,515 over the last 24 hours, according to Hgraph. Daily Network TVL rose 2% to $67.1 million.

Canton (CC) is consolidating near $0.13 after a strong weekly rally, supported by rising volume and growing institutional engagement with the Canton Network’s regulated blockchain infrastructure. With price holding above key support and resistance forming near $0.14, traders are watching for a potential breakout toward the $0.15–$0.17 zone as CC increasingly trades like infrastructure exposure rather than a speculative altcoin.