Technical Analysis

Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann attribute Bitcoin's recent downturn to systematic mechanical selling by one constrained participant rather than broad market repricing. They cite unusual momentum patterns—including an all-time low 1-day MACD despite only a 33% price drop—as evidence of forced liquidation absent typical macro stress or leverage shocks. The analysts argue the selling exhibits characteristics of rules-based unwinding rather than organic sentiment deterioration.

Multiple cryptocurrency companies have launched or filed for public listings near Bitcoin's recent all-time high, repeating a pattern seen in previous market cycles. Bullish debuted on August 13, 2025, and Figure priced its IPO on September 10, 2025—both within weeks of Bitcoin's October 6 peak near $126,198. Grayscale filed publicly on November 13, 2025, roughly 38 days after that top, reporting $318.7 million in revenue and $203.3 million in net income for the first nine months of 2025.

A Uniswap holder inactive for 4.5 years sold 512,000 UNI tokens at approximately $7, crystallizing an $11.65 million loss on a position acquired at $29.8 in 2021. The sale occurred amid intensified selling pressure from large holders. UNI has declined to $6.5 following recent whale liquidations totaling 5.6 million tokens over three days.

Bitcoin has remained below $100,000 for multiple consecutive days as retail investors sell holdings to institutional buyers and whales. Futures market data shows declining whale participation, with smaller retail-driven transactions now dominating market structure and limiting upward price momentum. Options markets assign only 30% probability to Bitcoin closing above $100,000 by year-end, while analysts identify $98,000-$100,000 as the primary resistance zone.

Bitcoin is trading near $84,000 after falling approximately 35% from its peak above $126,000. The decline has eliminated a 260-day advantage the asset held earlier in the current market cycle. Data shows $82,045 represents a critical support level where more than 825,000 BTC previously traded.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin may be approaching a market bottom following this week's sharp decline. Hayes advised traders to wait for further stock market weakness before entering positions. He linked the cryptocurrency's trajectory to U.S. dollar liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin has fallen 33% to $84,000 since registering a death cross on November 16, when its 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average. The CMC Fear and Greed Index now stands at 11, its lowest level since July 2023. Historical data shows death crosses have typically preceded positive returns within three months, though current macroeconomic conditions may present different dynamics.

Bitcoin fell below $86,000 to its lowest level in seven months, sparking debate among market analysts over the timing of the next major rally. Some forecasters maintain a $200,000 target could materialize in 2025, while others project the next parabolic move won't occur until 2029. The disagreement centers on cycle duration rather than long-term direction.

Bitcoin could decline further into a $73,000–$84,000 support zone before establishing a cycle bottom, according to André Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise. The upper boundary of $84,000 matches the average cost basis of BlackRock's IBIT ETF, while the lower threshold of $73,000 represents Strategy's most recent Bitcoin acquisition price. Dragosch characterized these levels as potential fire sale territory that could mark a full market reset.

Bitcoin dropped below $85,000, triggering over $2 billion in derivatives liquidations across major exchanges within 24 hours. The cryptocurrency reached an overnight low of $81,600. Long positions accounted for approximately $1.86 billion of the liquidations, while short positions represented around $140 million, data show.