Technical Analysis

As 2026 begins, Bitcoin is holding near $88,228.47, with on-chain indicators showing balance rather than conviction. SOPR sits at 0.994 and the Coinbase Premium Index at -0.09, while Coinglass reported 2,949.67 BTC net outflows on December 22, 2025. XWIN Research Japan projects a likely $80,000–$140,000 trading band through much of 2026.

Bitcoin opened 2026 around $87,500, with TradingView showing muted action after a soft Q4. Analysts on X flagged low weekly RSI and a tight Bollinger BandWidth, indicating potential for heightened volatility, while 2025 closed "red" and voices like Simon Dixon questioned the four-year cycle; others eyed $90K near term and $150,000 in the year ahead.

On 1 January 2026, on-chain readings signaled a balanced Bitcoin market, with selling absorbed rather than driving a breakdown. SOPR sat near 0.994 and the Coinbase Premium Index around -0.09, while recent exchange netflows near -1,600 BTC suggest coins are moving to long-term custody.

Heading into 2026, XRP is absorbing a routine $1 billion escrow unlock while derivatives traders maintain a more than 70% long skew around the $1.80–$1.85 range. In 2025, XRP fell 36% in Q4 to close the year down 12%, even as exchange reserves declined from 3 billion to 2.6 billion tokens, pointing to a potential supply squeeze beneath the recent sideways price action.

In April 2024, Bitcoin underwent its halving; in October, it set a new all‑time high above $126,000. According to market data, BTC closed 2025 below its January opening price, marking the first post‑halving year to finish in the red as a late‑year sell‑off erased gains.

Franklin Templeton launched its spot XRPZ ETF on NYSE Arca on Nov 24, 2025, and on Dec 30, 2025 publicly endorsed XRPL and XRP for real-time, low-cost cross-border payments. Despite a peak near $3.66, XRP fell over 50% to an October low of $1.58 as daily active addresses dropped 94%. CoinGecko and issuer data show 24 straight ETF inflow days totaling $1.06Bn, with AUM above $1.14Bn.

Bitcoin entered 2026 trading near $88,000, with analysts debating whether it will break out or remain locked in a broad range. Research from XWIN Research Japan outlines a base case in which BTC fluctuates mainly between $80,000 and $140,000, while technical signals point to a tightening triangle pattern that could trigger moves of about 15% once resolved. Despite modest recent price changes and macro uncertainty, corporate holders now collectively own more than 1 million BTC, suggesting underlying support even as upside may be capped.

On Dec. 31, crypto analyst Cantonese Cat argued that Dogecoin's pullback on weakening volume mirrors AMD's pre-rally setup last year. His chart shows DOGE nearing the 0.382 Fibonacci area around $0.118, while a Dec. 20 roadmap mapped extension targets at $0.90, $1.25, $1.99, $4.78 and $8.91.

Solana has drawn focus as network activity climbs while SOL consolidates under $130. In 2025, its DEX trading volume reached $1.6 trillion, placing it second to Binance at $7.2 trillion. By January 2026, Coinglass showed open interest down to $7.5 billion from $17 billion, and SOL trades near $124 with buyers defending the 20-day EMA around $125.

On 1 January 2026, attention shifted to Solana as large holders resumed accumulation across SOL and ecosystem tokens. According to Santiment, steady buying has coincided with robust liquidity and calmer sentiment, while SOL traded around $124.63 at the start of the year. The pattern suggests longer-horizon positioning amid reduced short-term volatility.