Trading

On Thursday, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said most indicators in his bull score index for Bitcoin flipped bearish in early November, suggesting the market has been in a downtrend for about two months. With Bitcoin trading near $88,543 on Friday after peaking at $126,080 in October 2025, he expects the bear market low in 2026 to form around $56,000 to $60,000, based on the realized price and historical cycles.

On January 2, 2026, Financial Times reporting said central banks are transacting gold at unprecedented rates as illicit exports erode revenues and foreign exchange reserves. Madagascar's governor said up to 20 tonnes a year, worth about $2.8 billion, leave outside official channels, prompting domestic buying programs across Ghana, Ecuador, the Philippines, and Mongolia.

Prediction market data shows traders favor measured gains for Bitcoin before 2027, with 80% odds for $100,000 and declining probabilities for $120,000–$150,000. Analysts remain upbeat on the longer-term path, citing potential U.S. policy shifts, rate-cut expectations, and regulatory initiatives as catalysts in 2026.

Prediction market traders on Polymarket currently assign only a 21% chance that Bitcoin will hit $150,000 before 2027, even as several analysts forecast much higher levels in 2026. The market instead prices an 80% probability of BTC touching $100,000 and 45% odds of it reaching $120,000, below its prior all-time high. This cautious stance follows Bitcoin ending 2025 in negative territory and comes amid expectations of a new Federal Reserve chair, lower interest rates and upcoming U.S. crypto legislation.

Tether moved Bitcoin off Bitfinex, contributing to shrinking exchange supply while leverage rises across the market. Derivatives positioning tilts long and dense downside liquidity sits below current ranges, raising the odds of swift moves as positive funding persists and prices consolidate.

Dogecoin fell roughly 67% in 2025 as meme coins lost momentum, but trader Matt Hughes outlined a bullish setup around the $0.11–$0.12 support band. His plan uses a stop loss just under $0.11 and a target near $0.45, implying a risk‑reward ratio of about 4.5:1 if the price rebounds from this area. Recent price action shows DOGE hovering around $0.12, with a 2.8% daily gain and trading volumes jumping 79%, while new meme‑focused project Pepenode is promoting a mine‑to‑earn model via its ongoing presale.

In the last two days, blockchain tracker Lookonchain reported that three large wallets withdrew $15.9 million in Solana DeFi tokens, including PUMP, CLOUD, KMNO, JTO, and DRIFT. At the same time, Solana has held above $120 and formed a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, while traders watch the planned Alpenglow upgrade in Q1 2026 and assess the chances of a move back toward $145–$168.

Lighter, a privacy-focused perpetual DEX on Ethereum, saw about $250 million withdrawn from the platform a day after its LIT token generation event, with net outflows near $101 million. Perpetual trading volumes on Lighter dropped from $66 billion to $31 billion between late November and late December, while LIT's price slid 32% from $3.30 to $2.20 before rebounding to $2.60 amid mixed analyst views and slightly bearish derivatives positioning.

Bitcoin's recent sideways trading is being linked more to derivatives activity than to spot ETF flows, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. He noted that since November 22, daily Bitcoin futures volume has fallen from $123 billion to $63 billion, yet still stands at nearly 20 times spot Bitcoin ETF volume and about 10 times spot market trading. Darkfost and other analysts point to persistently negative net taker volume, weakening demand, and moderated but ongoing long-term holder selling as key factors keeping BTC locked in a consolidation range around $87,972.

On Dec. 30, Bitwise filed with the US SEC for 11 single-token "strategy" ETFs tied to Aave, Uniswap, Zcash, NEAR, Starknet, Sui, Bittensor, Tron, and others. Each proposes about 60% in the underlying asset with the remainder in related ETPs and derivatives, targeting a March 16, 2026 effective date. Markets saw limited reaction amid generic SEC listing standards.