Trading

Bitcoin fell 3.6% to $89,502 during Friday's New York session, leaving it nearly 30% below its October 6 record high of $126,000 as short-term rallies face heavy selling. On-chain and derivatives metrics described by Glassnode and market analysts point to a mild bearish phase, with unrealized losses at 4.4%, weakening ETF inflows and thin liquidity amplifying downside pressure despite the latest Federal Reserve rate cut.

According to analysis by Joao Wedson and Alphractal on Dec 12, 2025, long‑term holders have produced four rare distribution signals and moved dormant coins back into circulation. Glassnode notes a 4.4% relative unrealized loss and fading volatility, while price sits roughly 30% below the early October all‑time high near $126,000 and fear readings reach cycle extremes.

Short-term Bitcoin holders reportedly saw profitable conditions on 229 out of 345 trading days in 2025, even as BTC remained below its yearly open and struggled to stay above $100,000. Onchain metrics highlight the STH realized price near $81,000 and shifts in unrealized losses as key drivers of sentiment during multiple profit and loss phases. Analysts are watching whether the current rebound toward $92,500 and fading capitulation can support another expansion phase into 2026.

On Friday, Bitcoin once again failed to break through the $93,000 resistance level and reversed lower, with derivatives liquidations climbing above $138 million and long positions taking most of the hit. Analysts highlighted $86,000 and the $78,000–$80,000 zone as key downside areas, while on-chain data showed large holders have offloaded about 170,500 BTC over the past year and recent U.S. spot ETF outflows added extra pressure.

XRP is trading around $2.00 in a tightening range, with $2.17 identified as overhead resistance and $1.96 and $1.78 as key supports. Momentum readings lean neutral, pointing to consolidation rather than a trend continuation. Structural updates at Ripple and AMINA Bank are treated as longer‑term positives, while traders await a confirmed breakout or breakdown to set direction.

On December 12, 2025, Kalshi, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Robinhood, and Underdog announced the Coalition for Prediction Markets to reinforce CFTC-led federal oversight and counter state gaming regulators and lobby groups. The sector reports over $150 billion in annualized trading volume as the AGA campaigns and several states pursue actions classifying sports-linked contracts as gambling.

Interactive Brokers has introduced a feature enabling U.S. retail clients to fund individual brokerage accounts with USDC stablecoins, with deposits routed from users' personal crypto wallets and converted into U.S. dollars. The phased rollout, powered by Zerohash, supports networks such as Ethereum, Solana, and Base and imposes limits of $10 minimum, $25,000 per transaction, $25,000 per day, and $100,000 per month.

On December 12, Dubai-based crypto exchange Bybit announced BYUSDT, a proprietary token that represents USDT balances in its Flexible Easy Earn product for 1:1 margin trading. The token is available to VIP users, who can switch between BYUSDT and Flexible Easy Earn without manual swap fees while continuing to accrue hourly yield with daily distributions. The product aims to boost capital efficiency for Tether holders and complements Bybit's broader stablecoin strategy centered on USDT and USDC.

Bitcoin rebounded after the US Federal Reserve delivered three consecutive interest rate cuts totaling 0.75% between September and December, with prices swinging between $90,000 and $93,500 before stabilizing near $92,300. Traders are now focused on resistance in the $97,000–$108,000 zone, ETF inflows of $219 million since late November, and mixed signals from dollar weakness and US equity strength as they gauge the next move.

On December 12, 2025, Fundstrat's Tom Lee told CNBC he sees the S&P 500 ending this year near 7,000 and reaching about 7,700 next year, implying a roughly 10% gain. He warned that 2026 could feel like a bear market as a new, more dovish Federal Reserve leadership is tested and markets react to potential Supreme Court action on tariffs.