Prediction market data shows traders favor measured gains for Bitcoin before 2027, with 80% odds for $100,000 and declining probabilities for $120,000–$150,000. Analysts remain upbeat on the longer-term path, citing potential U.S. policy shifts, rate-cut expectations, and regulatory initiatives as catalysts in 2026.

Prediction market traders on Polymarket currently assign only a 21% chance that Bitcoin will hit $150,000 before 2027, even as several analysts forecast much higher levels in 2026. The market instead prices an 80% probability of BTC touching $100,000 and 45% odds of it reaching $120,000, below its prior all-time high. This cautious stance follows Bitcoin ending 2025 in negative territory and comes amid expectations of a new Federal Reserve chair, lower interest rates and upcoming U.S. crypto legislation.

Tether moved Bitcoin off Bitfinex, contributing to shrinking exchange supply while leverage rises across the market. Derivatives positioning tilts long and dense downside liquidity sits below current ranges, raising the odds of swift moves as positive funding persists and prices consolidate.

CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has outlined on X that Bitcoin's market cycles are better defined by demand dynamics than by price moves. Using the Apparent Demand metric, which compares miner issuance with changes in 1-year dormant supply, he notes the 30-day reading has turned negative while the yearly value is declining. At the same time, net flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently been negative, and Bitcoin is consolidating around the $88,000 mark.

Abra CEO Bill Barhydt expects Bitcoin to gain in 2026 as the Federal Reserve's looser monetary stance injects additional liquidity and boosts risk appetite. He highlights renewed bond purchases, the prospect of lower interest rates, and improving regulation and institutional demand as key supports, while other analysts foresee more moderate, lower-volatility returns. Some market observers also see Bitcoin in a corrective and accumulation phase after a sharp pullback from its late-2025 peak, with elevated rates limiting the chance of an early-2026 breakout.

Bitcoin's recent sideways trading is being linked more to derivatives activity than to spot ETF flows, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. He noted that since November 22, daily Bitcoin futures volume has fallen from $123 billion to $63 billion, yet still stands at nearly 20 times spot Bitcoin ETF volume and about 10 times spot market trading. Darkfost and other analysts point to persistently negative net taker volume, weakening demand, and moderated but ongoing long-term holder selling as key factors keeping BTC locked in a consolidation range around $87,972.

Bitcoin closed Q4 2025 with a 23% drop, the weakest quarter since 2018's 42% slide. Analysts outline 2026 scenarios spanning a broad $80,000–$140,000 range, with risks of dips below $80,000 if recession pressures rise and potential extensions toward $170,000 under favorable Fed policy and ETF flows.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, charts shared on X showed global M2 growth turning higher and the U.S. Federal Reserve adding about $74.6 billion in repo liquidity, while Bitcoin’s price stayed close to the upper end of its recent range. The data highlighted a growing divergence between improving liquidity signals and BTC’s short term direction, raising questions about how tightly the asset tracks money supply and temporary funding operations.