Prediction market data shows traders favor measured gains for Bitcoin before 2027, with 80% odds for $100,000 and declining probabilities for $120,000–$150,000. Analysts remain upbeat on the longer-term path, citing potential U.S. policy shifts, rate-cut expectations, and regulatory initiatives as catalysts in 2026.

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Prediction market traders on Polymarket currently assign only a 21% chance that Bitcoin will hit $150,000 before 2027, even as several analysts forecast much higher levels in 2026. The market instead prices an 80% probability of BTC touching $100,000 and 45% odds of it reaching $120,000, below its prior all-time high. This cautious stance follows Bitcoin ending 2025 in negative territory and comes amid expectations of a new Federal Reserve chair, lower interest rates and upcoming U.S. crypto legislation.

Tether moved Bitcoin off Bitfinex, contributing to shrinking exchange supply while leverage rises across the market. Derivatives positioning tilts long and dense downside liquidity sits below current ranges, raising the odds of swift moves as positive funding persists and prices consolidate.

CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has outlined on X that Bitcoin's market cycles are better defined by demand dynamics than by price moves. Using the Apparent Demand metric, which compares miner issuance with changes in 1-year dormant supply, he notes the 30-day reading has turned negative while the yearly value is declining. At the same time, net flows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently been negative, and Bitcoin is consolidating around the $88,000 mark.

Dogecoin's long-term chart remains bullish, with analyst Olivier D Maximus arguing on December 31 that the meme coin's large-scale structure still supports a move beyond $10. His analysis highlights an Ascending Channel with higher lows and potential targets above $12 and up to $25 if the pattern holds. Separately, Trader Tardigrade notes DOGE trading near $0.122 inside a Descending Triangle, with possible short-term moves toward $0.132 on a breakout or $0.116 on a breakdown.

Dogecoin fell roughly 67% in 2025 as meme coins lost momentum, but trader Matt Hughes outlined a bullish setup around the $0.11–$0.12 support band. His plan uses a stop loss just under $0.11 and a target near $0.45, implying a risk‑reward ratio of about 4.5:1 if the price rebounds from this area. Recent price action shows DOGE hovering around $0.12, with a 2.8% daily gain and trading volumes jumping 79%, while new meme‑focused project Pepenode is promoting a mine‑to‑earn model via its ongoing presale.

In the last two days, blockchain tracker Lookonchain reported that three large wallets withdrew $15.9 million in Solana DeFi tokens, including PUMP, CLOUD, KMNO, JTO, and DRIFT. At the same time, Solana has held above $120 and formed a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, while traders watch the planned Alpenglow upgrade in Q1 2026 and assess the chances of a move back toward $145–$168.