Bitcoin is on track for its first full‑year break from stock market performance in more than a decade, as equities rally while BTC posts a yearly loss. Data show the S&P 500 has gained over 16% this year while Bitcoin has fallen 3%, forcing investors to reassess whether the asset is in a normal correction or facing a deeper structural shift.

Hash price has slipped to about $38.56 per PH/s/day, below the $40 profitability mark, pushing miners to expand solar, wind, and hydro power to trim costs. New sites in Texas, Ethiopia, and Briscoe County launched in September and November as margins tightened. Halving in April 2024 and higher difficulty have further pressured revenue.

On 13 December 2025, analysts observed that global liquidity gauges are climbing again after a prolonged tightening phase, a backdrop that has often coincided with stronger Bitcoin performance. On-chain data points to renewed accumulation by large, long-term holders, while some commentators argue Bitcoin should be evaluated against money supply and broader macro metrics rather than only the U.S. dollar. Together, these macro and on-chain signals are seen as supportive of a more constructive long-term outlook despite ongoing short-term volatility.

On December 13, 2025, Itaú Unibanco reiterated that investors should consider a 1%–3% Bitcoin allocation in their portfolios starting in 2026. The bank's research frames Bitcoin as a long-term diversifier and currency hedge, not a core holding, and highlights how 2025 foreign-exchange moves shaped returns for Brazilian investors. Itaú also points to access via its Íon platform and BITI11 ETF, while recent price data shows Bitcoin at $90,300 after a 2.5% 24-hour drop.

Bitcoin slipped by several thousand dollars on Friday afternoon before stabilizing around $90,000. On December 12, 2025, President Donald Trump said next year’s interest rates could be at 1% or lower and later warned of land strikes against drug operations in Latin America. Despite the headlines, BTC remains just over $90,000.

On 13 December 2025, Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset manager overseeing roughly $12 trillion, reiterated caution on Bitcoin even as it allows trading in select spot Bitcoin ETFs. John Ameriks, global head of quantitative equity, said BTC lacks income and compounding features, and recent volatility around the low-$90,000 range reinforces the firm’s skepticism.

In early 2025, blockchain analytics firm Global Ledger reported that sanctioned Russian exchange Garantex rebuilt a payout system using new Bitcoin and Ethereum wallets holding over $34 million in crypto. At least $25 million has already been distributed to former users, while most of the Ethereum reserve remains untouched, with the wallets allegedly interacting with top 10 centralized exchanges and raising fresh regulatory concerns.

Brazil’s largest private lender Itaú reaffirmed its Bitcoin stance in a new outlook, advising a 1–3% portfolio allocation as a long-term hedge into 2026. The bank maintained this view despite recent volatility, with BTC around $90,100 and down 2.3% on a USDT basis, citing diversification benefits and protection during currency stress.