Bank of America Global Research projects that the Bank of Japan could lift rates by 25 basis points to 1% in April 2026, after already moving to 0.75% in January 2026. Analysts caution that a stronger yen and weaker global liquidity could pressure Bitcoin, which previously dropped about 3% following January’s hike, and might now face a further 4–5% decline toward the $60,000 area.

Bitcoin has retreated sharply from about $126,000 to roughly $68,000, with on-chain metrics indicating the asset is nearing an undervalued band. The MVRV ratio around 1.1, repeated ETF outflows, and subdued spot demand highlight persistent selling, while long-term holder behavior may determine whether this phase evolves into a broader recovery.

Bitcoin core developers have proposed BIP-360, a soft fork to mitigate long-tail quantum risk for Taproot (P2TR) addresses. According to Glassnode, P2TR's share slipped from nearly 54% in early 2024 to 22% by early 2026, while BIP-360 introduces Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR) as a privacy-preserving path.

Market analyst Sam Daodu reviews past Bitcoin cycles, noting that 40%–50% corrections have frequently retraced within nine to fourteen months when no systemic breakdown occurs. He also points to a realized price near $55,000 as a potential floor, while Bitcoin surpassed its 2021 peak in March 2024 after a 28‑month recovery.

Polymarket introduced five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets that settle immediately when each window closes, letting participants wager on BTC finishing higher or lower. At launch, the product focuses on price direction and runs on a near-continuous schedule, with outcomes derived from trusted pricing feeds. The format may draw high-frequency strategies and automated traders.

During a Thursday Fox Business interview, Anthony Pompliano said cooling inflation is challenging why Bitcoin holders stay invested and argued deflation may mask U.S. dollar devaluation before a rebound in risk assets. Market sentiment has fallen to multi‑year lows, and Bitcoin has slid over the past month as investors reassess its role.

According to on-chain data from Glassnode, Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has recently slipped to about 0.18, placing the market in what the firm labels the hope/fear zone. This level reflects thinner unrealized profits as rallies face selling pressure and downside can deepen if conviction weakens, while Bitcoin's price has moved from around $65,000 on Thursday back to roughly $69,000 on Friday.

In February 2026, a federal judge in the Eastern District of Virginia sentenced Praetorian Group International founder Ramil Ventura Palafox to 20 years for wire fraud and concealment money laundering linked to a Bitcoin Ponzi scheme. Prosecutors said the operation raised more than $201 million, took in at least 8,198 BTC, and drew over 90,000 investors, with confirmed losses of at least $62.7 million.