On Tuesday, Bitcoin traded below $69,000 after a sell-off to $60,000 and a swift rebound to $72,000 pulled long-term valuation gauges into a deep-value zone. Realized price bands at roughly $55,000 and $42,000 and power-law percentiles near cycle lows suggest upside of 170%–220%, while analysts also warn of potential downside toward $52,000 or even $38,000–$40,000.

Canaan reported fourth-quarter revenue of more than $196 million, up 121% year over year, as mining hardware demand improved. Shipments reached a record 14.6 exahashes per second, while mining revenue totaled $30.4 million and 300 BTC were produced. The company still posted an $85 million net loss and grew bitcoin holdings to 1,778 BTC by January.

Claims of being Satoshi Nakamoto must be resolved by cryptography, not publicity. Conclusive proof requires a publicly verifiable signature from a private key linked to early Bitcoin addresses, ideally from 2009, or an onchain move from those dormant coins. Courts, documents and code are insufficient, and a UK High Court ruled Craig Steven Wright is not Satoshi.

Bitcoin is forming a major liquidity cluster between the $72,000–$80,000 range, with an additional notable cluster near $67,000–$68,000. Current price action around $68,500 suggests bears still dominate, but liquidation data indicates short positions in the higher band could face pressure if bulls drive a short-term recovery.

On Monday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told a symposium in La Jolla, California that Bitcoin’s drop from a late-2025 peak of $125,000 to about $60,000–$70,000 is a normal correction, not a systemic failure. He attributed much of the selloff to institutional investors adjusting risk and noted that uncertainty around the stalled CLARITY Act is weighing on sentiment. Waller also said the Fed aims to roll out restricted "payment accounts" for tech and crypto firms by the end of 2026, offering limited access to the central banking system without interest or overdrafts.

Bitcoin traded in a tight range around $70,000 and then slid toward $68,500 as over $250 million in crypto positions were liquidated within 24 hours. Analysts highlighted bears' attempts to regain control, pointing to clustered leveraged liquidity between $66,000 and $74,000 and warning of a likely retest of local support amid weakening demand. The market showed signs of reduced fresh capital inflows, raising concerns about the durability of recent bullish momentum.

Bitcoin fell to $59,930 on Friday, its lowest level since October 2024, in what Kaiko Research describes as a possible halfway point in the present bear market. The firm notes a 32% correction since the 2024 halving, shrinking spot volumes and reduced futures open interest, while analysts remain divided on whether $60,000 marks a cycle low or if further downside toward $40,000–$50,000 is needed to align with past drawdowns.

Glassnode data show the Bitcoin Mayer Multiple fell to 0.65 as of Monday, a level last seen in May 2022 and below the 0.8 oversold band. On Tuesday, On-Chain College said this aligns with deep bear-market phases, while analysts mapped potential supports near the $58,000 200-week MA and, in extreme cases, toward $40,000.