On December 30, 2025, Santiment reported Bitcoin lagging major assets since November, with gold up 9%, the S&P 500 up 1%, and BTC down about 20%. Bitcoin traded near $88,000 as of Wednesday, while large holders stayed cautious and smaller wallets were more active in late 2025. CoinCodex forecasts $91,500 by January 30, 2026 amid extreme fear and mixed on-chain signals.

Bitcoin hovered around $88.3k within the $85k–$90k band after the 10/10 selloff set a bearish tone that eased in December near $84.5k support. Since 15 December, each push into the $90k zone has been rejected, while thin year-end liquidity and quiet equity benchmarks signaled caution. Seven straight spot ETF outflow days from 18–29 December and rising realized volatility since October highlight fragile demand and growing breakout risk.

Bitcoin fell about 32% from its $126,000 ATH and settled into a $85,000–$90,000 range after selling intensified on 10 October and through Q4 2025. Long‑term holders briefly flipped from distributing to buying, while U.S. spot ETFs saw $1.12 billion in outflows (17–29 December) followed by a $335 million daily inflow, shaping the Q1 2026 outlook.

In late November, Coinbase’s large internal wallet migration distorted Bitcoin long-term holder metrics, making routine fund shuffling appear like renewed selling pressure. After adjusting for this effect, on-chain data suggests long-term holders are only modestly reducing sales, while ETFs and recent U.S. Federal Reserve moves continue to shape short-term market direction. Analysts outline multiple scenarios from stabilization to renewed distribution, emphasizing that any shift back to steady accumulation would likely take time to confirm.

Yield Basis introduces an IL-free AMM that removes impermanent loss via leverage and offers BTC-denominated returns to liquidity providers. LPs can either hold ybBTC to receive trading fees in BTC or stake ybBTC to earn YB emissions, with the fee switch activated earlier this month. Roughly $450,000 was distributed in the week ending Dec. 25.

Early Bitcoin investors anticipate a tough 2026, with a potential price low around $60,000 in Q4 and only a 20% chance of new highs before the cycle low. Despite that, they expect payment utility to improve, citing Square's BTC integration, Bitcoin-backed stablecoins, and Lightning, which could capture 5% of stablecoin flows by 2028.

On December 30, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $355 million in net inflows, halting a seven‑day run of withdrawals. The day's gains were led by BlackRock's IBIT ($143.75 million), ARK 21Shares' ARKB ($109.56 million), and Fidelity's Wise Origin ($78.59 million), though December still shows roughly $744 million in net outflows.

On December 31, Bitcoin is trading near $87,986 while retesting local support around $88,073 after a 0.56% daily decline. Analysts note that if this level fails, BTC could extend its pullback toward the $87,500 area, with current low volume suggesting neither buyers nor sellers are in clear control and price may consolidate.