Macro

A weaker U.S. July jobs report cooled expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, with the implied chance of a rate hike at next month’s FOMC meeting falling to 44% from 58%. U.S. stocks ended Friday higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.62%, the Dow up 0.28%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 1.19%. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped 3 bp to 4.65%. Atlassian jumped more than 36% after issuing a stronger-than-expected Q1 revenue outlook, while Cloudflare rose 4% after reporting better-than-expected earnings.

Soft US employment data sent short-term Treasury yields sharply lower. The two-year yield fell about 5 basis points to 4.19%, marking its biggest weekly drop since May. The 10-year yield declined about 9 basis points on the week to 4.65%, its first weekly fall in three. In interest-rate swaps, traders cut the implied probability of a Federal Reserve hike in September to about 40% from close to 60% before the data.

The Trump administration is moving forward with steps to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, with White House aide Dan Scavino telling her she has until Aug. 26 to challenge the action. The push follows a 5-4 Supreme Court ruling that allowed Cook to remain in her role while her lawsuit proceeds. The effort is being scrutinized as a political test of the Fed’s independence and the credibility of U.S. monetary policy.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, far below expectations for an 80,000 increase. The unexpectedly weak data eased concerns that the Federal Reserve could tighten policy further. Traders cut the implied odds of a September rate hike to about 20% from 55%. The Dow and S&P 500 hit fresh record highs, led by gains in technology and consumer discretionary shares, with Atlassian standing out while chip stocks swung sharply.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, far below expectations for an increase of 80,000, prompting speculation that the Federal Reserve could pause rate hikes in September. Wall Street’s three major indexes rose on the news. The S&P 500 and the Dow logged their biggest weekly gains since April, while the Nasdaq hit its highest level since May.

Market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell sharply after the U.S. July jobs report came in well below expectations. Data from the Kalshi prediction market show the probability of the Fed holding rates steady rose from 50% before the report to 65%. CME’s FedWatch tool puts the hold-steadier odds at 60%, up from 45% on Thursday and about one-in-three a week earlier, while markets still price in a 75% chance of a hike by December.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in April, a sign the labor market is cooling and easing inflation pressure, which has tempered expectations for further Fed rate hikes. U.S. stocks were mostly higher in early Friday trading, with the S&P 500 up 0.4% and the Nasdaq up 1.1%, while the Dow slipped 0.1%. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.60%. Brent crude edged lower.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, far below expectations for an 80,000 increase, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% and average annual earnings rose 3.2%. The data raised doubts about a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in September, with markets leaning toward a pause, according to a Labor Department report. U.S. stock index futures advanced ahead of the open, led by technology shares as Atlassian and Microchip Technology gained. Solar stocks including First Solar and SolarEdge also rose after President Trump imposed tariffs on polysilicon products.

Japan and the United States jointly intervened in FX markets, buying yen and selling euros, helping the Japanese currency rebound from a roughly 40-year low. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would continue to take part in coordinated action and reiterated the view that the yen is substantially undervalued. The yen-funded carry trade had supported risk assets including bitcoin, and renewed intervention risks weakening that underpinning and adding pressure to BTC. Investors are also watching potential knock-on effects for crypto-linked firms that hold large bitcoin positions.

U.S. office vacancy fell 30 basis points to 18.3% in the second quarter of 2025, the largest quarterly decline since 2015, according to CBRE. Leasing activity totaled 62.4 million square feet, up 16% year over year. Over the past 12 months, leasing reached 243 million square feet, a 4% increase from the prior period. Office use has moved above pre-pandemic averages as more organizations implement in-office policies, though actual attendance remains below employer expectations.