Macro

U.S. equities ended lower on Friday after bond yields rose and Fed Chair Warsh reiterated a commitment to return inflation to target, lifting the perceived odds of a rate increase next month. The S&P 500 fell 0.25%, the Dow dipped 0.02%, and the Nasdaq 100 slid 0.70%. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 5 basis points to 4.72%. Chipmakers and AI infrastructure shares led declines, with Marvell Technology dropping 10% after issuing adjusted gross margin guidance below consensus.

Expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike to curb inflation strengthened, pushing the 2-year Treasury yield up to 4.32%. Traders lifted the implied odds of a hike as soon as next month to nearly 60% from 35%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.70%. U.S. stocks were mixed in midday trading, with the Dow edging higher and the Nasdaq lower.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation is not meaningfully slowing and stressed policymakers must be confident it is moving toward the Fed’s 2% target, or the central bank still has “work to do.” After the remarks, short-term U.S. Treasury yields jumped and markets lifted the implied probability of a September rate hike to above 50%. Risk assets came under pressure, pulling bitcoin back below $80,000.

Fed Chair Warsh said inflation remains the central bank’s main focus even as the labor market cools. He reiterated that the Fed’s 2% inflation target is fixed. Warsh said multiple indicators show inflation is still above that goal, citing July readings of 3.7% for PCE inflation and 3.4% for CPI inflation.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said at the Jackson Hole central bankers’ meeting that inflation remains “concerning,” and said the central bank’s predominant focus should be on prices. The latest reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge was 3.7% this week, extending a run of more than five years above the 2% target. While the Fed has kept rates unchanged through 2026, a growing group of policymakers has argued for hikes to counter price pressures tied to U.S. President Donald Trump’s war on Iran and tariff policies.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains too high, signaling the central bank may have to raise interest rates. Warsh, who took over from Jerome Powell on May 22, has drawn market attention for how he will approach tightening. The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, and inflation was 3.7% in July. Powell had responded to inflation that hit 9.1% in 2022 with aggressive rate increases and said the move would bring pain to consumers and businesses.

A Nasdaq-listed company plans a share issuance in which it will issue 10 new shares for every existing share, with proceeds to be used to buy Bitcoin. The move underscores how traditional listed companies are using equity financing to expand their balance-sheet exposure to Bitcoin.

Crypto exchange Kraken voted against a Solana governance proposal. The proposal seeks to speed up the reduction in SOL’s supply growth by increasing SOL inflation’s disinflation rate from the current -15% per year to -30% per year. Kraken’s opposition could affect the proposal’s chances of being approved.

Solana’s governance vote to reduce inflation is nearing its deadline, with support at 67.88%, narrowly above the 66.7% threshold required to pass. Major staking providers including Figment and Everstake have voted against, arguing that faster disinflation would cut SOL issuance and reduce staking yield. Solana’s DAT “Solana Company (HSDT)” also opposed the proposal, citing the need for consistent rules at a key moment for institutional adoption. By contrast, leading DeFi protocol Jupiter cast all its votes in favor, and the proposal’s passage would lower SOL’s annualized staking APY and could affect capital retention and smaller validator operations.

Indian IT stocks rallied in early trade on Friday, with the Nifty IT index up 3.27% and names such as LTIMindtree and Coforge rising about 4% to 5%. The move tracked broader gains in global tech shares after Nvidia’s upbeat revenue outlook revived optimism around AI investment. Investors are also watching Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s scheduled remarks at Jackson Hole for signals on inflation and the interest-rate path. Interest-rate futures currently imply roughly a 35% chance of a Fed hike at the September meeting.