Stock Index

Markets are turning to the next inflation release for a clearer read on whether the AI-led rally can keep going. Traders now see a 56% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates steady in September. In the S&P 500, 86% of constituents have reported second-quarter results, and 86% of those beat expectations, with earnings averaging 29% above forecasts. JPMorgan lifted its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000 on Monday, and Berkshire Hathaway bought back $4.5 billion of stock in the second quarter, the company’s biggest quarterly repurchase in nearly a decade.

A weaker yen helped lift Japan’s listed companies’ first-quarter pretax profits by nearly 50% year on year, contributing at least one-third of the increase. Goldman Sachs said 14.5% of companies had raised full-year earnings guidance as of last Thursday, up from 5% a year earlier. Share buybacks have reached about 20 trillion yen so far this year, already 11% above the total for all of 2025.

Australia’s second-largest mortgage lender reported an unaudited June-quarter net profit of $1.8 billion, up 3% on the quarterly average for the March half, but bank stocks weighed on the ASX. Mining shares outperformed, led by Sunrise Energy Metals, which surged 13% after the Pentagon was revealed to be planning an investment of more than $500 million in its New South Wales scandium project to expand critical minerals supply. West Texas Intermediate crude was trading near $US79 a barrel.

HSBC said 73% of Indian companies reporting June-quarter earnings met or exceeded analysts’ expectations, near the upper end of the range seen since 2020. The bank noted non-food credit growth accelerated to 18.3% year-on-year in June 2026 from around 10% in late 2025, while passenger vehicle sales rebounded sharply after last year’s mid-year contraction. Consensus forecasts see India’s corporate earnings rising around 14% in 2026 and 17% in 2027, with HSBC expecting the gains to be concentrated in industrials, consumer discretionary and financials.

Preliminary data showed the U.S. July nonfarm payrolls report was weak, with job gains for the prior two months sharply revised lower, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. CME FedWatch put the odds of a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting at 44%, down from 55% in the prior session and 67% a week earlier. As risk appetite improved, the S&P 500 rose 0.60% to a record close of 7756.44, and the Nasdaq gained 1.29% to 26690.62.

U.S. stock futures edged higher on Friday as investors awaited the U.S. employment report. Strong earnings from tech companies lifted sentiment, with Atlassian up 31.6% in premarket trading and Microchip Technology rising 8.9%. The S&P 500 and the Dow were set for their best weekly performance since April, while the Nasdaq was on track for its biggest weekly gain since May. The government also raised tariffs on polysilicon to support domestic industry.

South Korean retail investors are accelerating a shift into U.S. stocks after the KOSPI fell 33% from its June peak and the won strengthened, pushing July buying above the 2025 monthly average. The won rose 8% in July to a nine-month high, and SK Hynix’s $26.5 billion fundraising and partial repatriation also contributed to the move. Some inflows still went to Korea-linked ETFs, but the amounts were far smaller than the money headed into U.S. equities.

Japan’s Topix stock index is set for its biggest overhaul, with analysts estimating that more than 600 companies—over a third of its constituents—could be phased out. The removals would apply to firms whose free-float market capitalization ranks in the bottom 3% of Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed companies in August, according to analysts’ estimates. The changes are scheduled to be implemented in stages over two years beginning in October. Passive funds tracking Topix are estimated to account for about $1 trillion, and the overhaul aims to reduce the index’s exposure to small and illiquid stocks.

US stocks were mixed, with the S&P 500 up 0.07%, the Dow down 0.38%, and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.26%. Software names weighed on the market as Datadog fell 15% after reporting Q2 adjusted gross margin below consensus, and AppLovin slid 19% after missing revenue estimates. A rebound in chipmakers helped limit losses after early pressure tied to a 4% drop in South Korea’s Kospi. The session remained choppy overall.

A July selloff in AI-related stocks dragged major Asian benchmarks including South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei sharply lower, pushing Asia-focused equity hedge funds into an average 15.2% drawdown, the steepest on record. Some of the region’s largest multistrategy platforms posted monthly losses of 3% to 9%, according to Reuters. Hong Kong-based Polymer Capital Management lost 6.9% for the month.