Semiconductor ETF-to-Software ETF ratio slides 19.95% in month-to-date slump, raising questions about the AI trade
The SOXX/IGV ratio has fallen 19.95% month-to-date, putting it on track for its worst month on record back to 2001. Within SOXX, all holdings are down for the month except Nvidia, and the median component has dropped 22.42%, while IGV is up roughly 4% in July. SOXX’s forward P/E has slipped to 23.8 from a two-year average of 24.8, and IGV trades at 20—well below its historical mean. Drivers cited include profit-taking, concerns that hyperscalers’ AI capex growth may slow, and the impact of cheaper open-weight models on the chip-demand narrative.