Geopolitics

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,007 points, while the S&P 500 rose 142 points to 7,731 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.6%. Stocks advanced after Caterpillar (CAT) and Palantir (PLTR) posted results that topped expectations. Sentiment also improved after CNBC reported Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying progress tied to an Iran nuclear deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 24–48 hours. All three major indexes are up 13%–14% so far this year.

After the Iran war began, Diamondback Energy accelerated work on drilled but uncompleted wells, lifting output about 4% year-to-date. Second-quarter oil production rose to 525,000 b/d and total production averaged nearly 1.02 million boe/d, topping 1 million boe/d for the first time in the company’s history. The company is holding to a $3.9 billion full-year capital spending plan rather than significantly ramping production. The article says that even if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened immediately, restoring global crude inventories to prewar levels would still take 18 months, requiring net additions of 2.1 million b/d to stockpiles.

On August 4, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) posted net purchases of Rs 2,446.47 crore in Indian equities, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) recorded net sales of Rs 936 crore. The Nifty 50 fell 0.57% and the Sensex declined 0.58% on the day. Brent crude rose 2.5% to around $85 a barrel amid uncertainty over the US-Iran conflict. FCNR-B deposits increased by $28 billion between June 5 and July 30, reflecting the impact of the Reserve Bank of India’s foreign-currency inflow initiative.

Russia’s logistics and shipping group FESCO has suspended all new shipment orders via the Black Sea after its cargo vessel Yanina was hit by Ukrainian seaborne drones and sank while carrying frozen food and construction materials. Ukraine said it logged 57 attacks on vessels in July, including strikes in ports and at sea, along with 67 hits on port facilities. The incident adds to rising security risks for Black Sea shipping, disrupting key regional flows such as grain and construction materials and creating knock-on effects for global dry bulk freight and Black Sea-linked agricultural markets.

Wars involving Iran and Ukraine have intensified pressure on global oil supplies after Russian refineries were bombed and exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea were disrupted. The global refining deficit has reached 6.5 million barrels a day, including damaged capacity and products that cannot leave key waterways. More than 1.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the Middle East is offline due to physical damage. Saudi Arabia has shifted exports to routes via the Suez Canal and Egypt’s SUMED pipeline for 5 million barrels a day, while Brazil’s Petrobras reported a 14% year-on-year output increase and is running refineries at full capacity, adding to upward pressure on international crude prices.

Brussels Airlines reported an adjusted core operating loss (adjusted EBIT) of €70 million for the first half of 2026, down 50% from a year earlier, as fuel costs rose sharply. The carrier said fuel costs alone increased €64 million year on year amid oil-price volatility linked to the U.S.-Iran war, while an Ebola outbreak in East Africa and third-party strikes also weighed on results, according to Reuters. Passenger numbers and flights rose 8.1% and 5.5% respectively, and revenue increased 9.5%, but the gains did not offset cost pressure. The developments add strain to the airline’s profitability.

Lufthansa lowered its full-year adjusted EBIT forecast to €1.7 billion–€2.2 billion after sharp kerosene price volatility linked to the U.S.-Iran war pushed fuel costs higher. The new range is well below the airline’s earlier guidance for adjusted EBIT to be significantly above last year’s €1.96 billion. Second-quarter EBIT fell 56% year on year to €383 million. The group said its full-year capacity plan remains largely flat, though Q2 capacity was down about 3% due in part to strike days in April.

ANZ, New Zealand’s largest bank, raised several fixed-term home loan rates after the Middle East conflict pushed up wholesale funding costs. Special fixed rates from six months to three years increased by 0.10%–0.26%, taking key offers to 4.79%, 4.99%, 5.45% and 5.59% across selected terms. The changes apply to borrowers with at least 20% equity who have salary direct credited into an ANZ transaction account. The bank also lifted term deposit rates for one- to two-year terms by 0.10%–0.30%.

UFC Freedom 250, an MMA event staged on the White House South Lawn in Washington on June 14 to mark the US’s 250th birthday, was the first combat sports contest held at the venue. TKO Group said the event produced a US$30 million loss. Executives said it generated US$1 billion in “earned media,” drew 34 million global viewers and added 25 new marketing partners, according to Bloomberg.

Iran-backed Houthi forces said on 20 July they had imposed a blockade on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports, after mounting multiple attacks on commercial vessels over the past week. Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to single digits per day from more than 100 a day before the war, a chokepoint that previously carried about 20% of global oil and gas. Brent crude slid as much as 7.3% to $81.55 a barrel and settled at $84.05, down 4.4%. The developments underscore a material geopolitical shock to Middle East maritime energy routes.