Bitcoin Slides to $76,877 After Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Strikes Hawkish Tone at Jackson Hole

Bitcoin sank to an intraday low of $76,877 on Friday following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote, before ending the session at $77,557. The cryptocurrency fell 3.39% on the day after topping out overnight at $81,455, a level sitting inside a resistance zone that has blocked multiple breakout attempts this year. Investors read Warsh's message as clearly hawkish. He said the Fed needs inflation to move convincingly toward its target at a sufficiently fast pace before it can claim the job is done, adding that the central bank still has work ahead. Rate expectations shifted quickly: CME Group's FedWatch tool showed the probability of a September rate hike rising to 55.7%, up from 35.4% a day earlier. Derivatives positioning unwound across the market. CoinGlass reported about $481 million in crypto liquidations in the 24 hours around the speech, with more than $360 million tied to long positions. Sentiment indicators remained tilted bullish in prediction markets. Myriad's BTC next move market priced a 77% chance of a move to $84,000 versus a 23% probability of a drop to $55,000. The market has been active since late February, has logged $231,000 in trading volume, and has no fixed resolution date. Flow data also stayed supportive. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $2.8 billion in net inflows through Wednesday, extending the streak to eight consecutive sessions—the longest run since April. Technicians largely framed the pullback as consolidation rather than a trend reversal. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index stood at 69.7, while the Average Directional Index was near 39.5. Price action remained within the move that began from the June low around $68,858 and ran to this week's high near $81,455. Traders flagged $73,670 to $75,157 as the first key support band if selling intensifies. A daily close below that zone would put the 50-week moving average and the June breakout structure at risk. On the upside, bulls were seen needing to regain the $81,000 to $82,500 area to reopen the path toward fresh highs. Macro cross-currents also shaped the backdrop. The U.S. Treasury said it plans to at least double buybacks of long-dated bonds starting September 9, a move aimed at supporting a segment of the bond market that has faced weak demand since June. Lower long-term yields and a softer dollar helped revive the 'debasement trade'—a theme that has underpinned Bitcoin's climb from roughly $62,000 to $80,000 this month. Warsh offered no explicit rate path, leaving traders without a definitive signal ahead of the Fed's next policy decision. The PCE price index was running at 3.7% year over year, well above the Fed's 2% target, and Warsh did not provide a timeline for when inflation might return to that level.