Russia's central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said the digital ruble will launch on September 1, 2026, with preparations complete. The CBDC will complement the ruble and start with acceptance by financial and credit institutions. First Deputy Governor Vladimir Chistyukhin said the legal framework takes effect September 1, with a transition period until July 2027.

eToro said July 2 it led a $12.5 million strategic investment in Extended, an onchain perpetual futures exchange, with Jump Crypto also participating. The deal is tied to a partnership with Zengo to explore integrating traditional financial assets with decentralized trading, expanding onchain market access. Extended launched trading in late 2024 and runs on StarkWare's StarkEx.

Cardano's ADA rose more than 8% in a single session to $0.1588, lifting its market capitalization to about $5.78 billion. Daily trading volume was close to $500 million. The move followed the launch of the ADA Pay plug-in, which is designed to enable more than 7 million merchants to accept ADA payments. Built on Cardano's eUTXO model, the tool allows users to pre-verify transaction fees and execution outcomes before submitting a transaction, a feature positioned as improving reliability for financial applications. The development is being framed as a step toward expanding ADA beyond a purely trading-focused asset into real-world payment usage, though the report does not confirm actual merchant adoption rates.

K Wave Media (KWM) has sold its entire Bitcoin position of 88 BTC, using the proceeds to repay outstanding debt, meet collateral requirements, and address Nasdaq-related pressures, according to disclosures filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company's SEC Form 8-K filed on June 30, 2026, details the liquidation and links it to a debt repayment schedule totaling $6 million. KWM also indicated it is shifting its operating focus toward artificial intelligence services. The move should be viewed as a company-specific decision tied to credit and listing considerations, not as a broad signal that public firms are abandoning Bitcoin treasury strategies. Traders and investors will likely look for any follow-on filings or official updates to determine whether this remains an isolated balance-sheet action or part of a wider institutional repositioning. Sources: SEC (sec.gov). Written by the News Desk; edited by Samuel Rae.

Sen. Cynthia Lummis is pressing Congress to move quickly on crypto market structure legislation, arguing the U.S. needs clearer rules to keep digital-asset innovation from migrating overseas. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633), passed the House with a bipartisan 294"134 vote and now awaits action in the Senate. Lummis, who chairs the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, wants a full Senate vote before the August 2026 recess. She says regulatory uncertainty risks ceding leadership in a major technological shift and would amount to a self-inflicted strategic setback. The measure would draw clearer boundaries between digital commodities and securities, assigning oversight of one category to the CFTC and the other to the SEC, with the goal of reducing confusion over which agency has jurisdiction. Rep. French Hill introduced the bill on May 29, 2025, and it advanced rapidly in the House. In the Senate, the Banking Committee advanced its own version in May 2026 by a 15"9 vote, setting up what supporters hope will be a floor vote in the coming months. In addition to dividing regulatory responsibilities, the proposal includes more than 16 provisions aimed at illicit finance, including Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money-laundering requirements intended to address money-laundering concerns tied to crypto. It also includes provisions touching decentralized finance, with considerations for DeFi developers and validators. Lummis has framed the push as a response to intensifying global competition. The European Union is already operating under its Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regime, while Singapore has been positioning itself as a destination for digital-asset firms. She warns that without a coherent U.S. framework, global standards could be shaped without meaningful American influence. Calling the effort "a commitment, not a concession," Lummis argues that passing crypto rules is not capitulation to industry pressure but an acknowledgment that other jurisdictions are moving ahead. She has also tied the CLARITY Act to her broader advocacy for Bitcoin as a strategic asset, portraying BTC as important to U.S. economic leadership. Lummis has cautioned that failure to act in the current session could delay substantive digital-asset legislation until 2030.

Spot gold traded around $4,130 an ounce in early Asian dealing on July 3, extending gains after U.S. June nonfarm payrolls badly missed expectations and prompted traders to scale back bets on Federal Reserve rate hikes this year. U.S. crude hovered near $68.46 a barrel, supported by pre-holiday supply coverage and short-covering ahead of the U.S. Independence Day long weekend. U.S. equities ended Thursday mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.14% to a record close of 52,900.07. The S&P 500 finished slightly higher at 7,483.24, while the Nasdaq fell 0.80% to 25,832.67. The June jobs report showed payrolls increased by 57,000 versus forecasts of 110,000. The unemployment rate came in at 4.2%, a touch below the expected 4.3%. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike fell to 55% from 64.1%. Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments, said the data did not eliminate inflation concerns but eased near-term pressure for additional tightening. Bruce Zaro, managing director at Granite Wealth Management, said the sharp drop in chip stocks reflected profit-taking after strong year-to-date gains. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 5.4% even as it remained up about 78% for the year; NVIDIA fell 1.4% and SanDisk dropped 14.1%. Apple climbed 4.8% after Nikkei Asia reported it plans to launch five new iPhone models. Tesla slid 7.5% despite record second-quarter deliveries. Vimeo's parent, Bending Spoons, fell 11.3% on its second day of trading. For the week, the Dow rose about 2%, the S&P 500 gained 1.8%, and the Nasdaq added 2.1%. U.S. markets were closed Friday for the Independence Day holiday. Gold jumped more than 2% on Thursday, with spot gold at $4,123.61 an ounce, up 2.3%. The rally was driven by the weak payrolls print and a softer U.S. dollar, which improved the appeal of dollar-denominated bullion for non-U.S. investors. CME FedWatch indicated the probability of a rate hike before September fell from 66% before the data to around 51% after. David Meger, director of metal trading at High Ridge Futures, said weaker employment data reduces the likelihood of rate increases later this year and that lower-rate backdrops typically support gold. The World Gold Council said central banks returned to net buying in May, lifting official reserves by 41 tons. Other precious metals also advanced: spot silver rose 3.15% to $60.94, platinum gained 2.6% to $1,617.00, and palladium climbed 4.7% to $1,267.14. Oil prices edged higher on Thursday. Brent settled up 0.58% at $71.54 a barrel and U.S. crude ended up 0.54% at $68.46. Buying was linked to supply coverage ahead of the holiday and short-covering. Again Capital's John Kilduff said market attention has shifted from how much supply is being lost to how much supply is being added. Both benchmarks had earlier touched their lowest levels since before the U.S.-Iran war broke out in late February. Qatar, acting as a mediator, said the United States and Iran have made progress toward a permanent peace agreement to end the four-month conflict that disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. SEB chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop noted that oil continues to move through the strait and countries have been tapping strategic reserves. EIA data released Wednesday showed U.S. crude inventories fell to their lowest level since 2018 on strong refinery demand, while gasoline stocks also declined. Separately, Nigeria became the first OPEC member to join the International Energy Agency as an associate member. Ukraine's General Staff said Thursday it struck a Lukoil refinery in Russia's Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. In currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.54% on Thursday to 100.85 after hitting 100.55, its lowest since June 18, marking its biggest one-day drop since April 30. Fed funds futures repriced sharply, with traders now assigning a 54% chance of a rate hike before September versus 67% ahead of the jobs report. EUR/USD rose 0.52% to 1.1435 after touching 1.1472, its highest since June 22. The pound and Australian dollar also gained. Sarah Ying, head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets, said the weakness was concentrated in leisure and hospitality and could be seasonal, but it still moved markets. Fed Chair Walsh said Wednesday the central bank remains committed to its 2% inflation goal, adding that inflation expectations and risks have eased somewhat in recent weeks. Ying said that unless labor data keeps disappointing, the AI-driven capital flow narrative may continue to support the dollar. USD/JPY dropped 0.91% to 161.09 after touching 160.63, its lowest since June 18 and the steepest daily fall since April 30. Traders cited a shift in Japan's Ministry of Finance communication strategy: sources said officials are moving away from pre-signaling intervention risk and toward more targeted, forceful steps designed to deter speculators and lift short-selling costs without referencing specific exchange-rate levels. The ministry declined to comment. Some traders speculated officials may have conducted rate checks, often seen as a precursor to intervention. RBC Capital Markets' Abbas Keshvani said more data is needed to confirm intervention, though the timing suggests the possibility. International developments U.S. President Trump said in an interview Thursday that talks with Iran are progressing and that Iran has "almost agreed to everything we asked for." He said Washington is not pursuing regime change and reiterated the U.S. position that Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons. Trump also defended recent U.S. military actions, saying Iran had been "completely defeated militarily" and claiming the United States struck Iran after drones were used against a ship. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan said the next round of U.S.-Iran talks will resume "as soon as possible" after the funeral of former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a U.S.-Israel airstrike on Feb. 28, 2026. The funeral is scheduled for July 4–9. Iran has not issued an official response, and has previously said its stance depends on U.S. steps on sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets. Oil supply and Hormuz A source said Kuwait raised crude output in June after a temporary U.S.-Iran peace agreement, signaling a recovery in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz following wartime disruption. Kuwait produced about 2.5 million barrels per day before the near-blockade; Gulf producers including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iraq were forced to cut output by millions of barrels per day. The source said Kuwait's output peaked at 1.9 million barrels per day in the final 10 days of June. The report also said the United States and the UAE unfroze Iranian overseas funds in exchange for Iran dropping transit tolls in Hormuz, but Iran did not accept the condition. The United States and Oman are seeking ways to pressure Tehran to abandon the fee stance. People familiar with the matter said U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveled to Doha this week to consult Qatari mediators on implementing last month's preliminary agreement to reopen the strait. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Khatam al-Anbia Central Command said on July 2 that Iran would respond "firmly and swiftly" to any U.S. interference in the Strait of Hormuz, warning that U.S. aircraft activity over the area could undermine security. On July 1, U.S. Central Command said a U.S. Navy Sea Hawk helicopter made an emergency water landing in the Arabian Sea; three of four crew members were rescued and one remained missing, with no indication the landing was caused by hostile action. Iranian officials and regional diplomats said Oman has proposed a service-fee framework for ships using the Strait of Hormuz. A regional diplomat described the mechanism as voluntary, drawing on arrangements in the Strait of Malacca and the Singapore Strait that rely on contributions to support maritime safety, while Iranian officials said the fees would be mandatory. FedWatch probabilities CME FedWatch showed markets pricing an 82.4% chance the Fed holds rates steady in July and a 17.6% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike. By September, the odds implied a 46.8% chance of no change, 45.6% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike, and 7.6% chance of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike. By December, pricing implied a 23.5% chance of no change, 42.2% chance of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike, and 34.3% chance of at least a 50-basis-point hike. China domestic China's Ministry of Commerce said on July 2 that agricultural trade is an important part of China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation. Spokesperson He Yadong said that following recent consultations, both sides have set guiding objectives to expand bilateral agricultural trade and have agreed in principle to include certain agricultural products in a reciprocal tariff-reduction framework. He said companies will conduct trade based on market principles and demand conditions, and China is willing to work with the United States to create favorable conditions for bilateral agricultural trade.

Stablecoin supply fell in the second quarter of 2026, reversing almost three years of steady quarterly expansion and highlighting a widening divide between crypto-native yield products and stablecoins structured around traditional reserve assets. A Q2 2026 stablecoin report from crypto exchange CEX .IO shows total supply declined 15% in the quarter—down more than $3.5 billion—marking the first quarterly drop since Q3 2023. CEX .IO estimates total stablecoin supply at $312 billion in Q2. The report also flags softer network activity: adjusted transaction volume slipped 5.5%, while overall transaction counts posted a notable decline. Key data points from the report - Total stablecoin supply fell by more than $3.5 billion in Q2 2026, ending the category's quarterly growth streak that had run since Q3 2023. - Crypto-native yield stablecoins contracted sharply. Ethena's sUSDe supply dropped 52% (nearly $2 billion), while Sky's sUSDS declined 16%. - Treasury-backed yield products expanded. BlackRock's BUIDL rose 2%, Circle's USYC increased by nearly 16%, and Ondo Finance's USDY climbed by more than 66%. - Transaction activity weakened materially. Stablecoin transaction counts fell by 530 million to 4.48 billion, which CEX.IO describes as the largest quarterly decline on record. - Smaller transfers were comparatively resilient. Transfers under $250 rose 5% to $19.39 billion despite broader weakness. Crypto-native yield tokens lose traction CEX .IO describes Q2 as a clear divergence within the stablecoin yield market. Yield-bearing stablecoin supply fell largely because crypto-issued, crypto-native products pulled back. Ethena's sUSDe was the biggest driver, shedding 52% of supply—nearly $2 billion—over the quarter. Sky's sUSDS also retreated, down 16%. For users and market participants, the takeaway is that stablecoin "yield" is not a single, uniform category. Products tied closely to onchain activity and crypto trading or hedging structures can see supply contract quickly when demand for those strategies fades. Treasury-backed products gain share While crypto-native yield tokens shrank, treasury-backed offerings moved higher. CEX.IO reports BlackRock's BUIDL gained 2% in Q2, Circle's USYC rose by nearly 16%, and Ondo Finance's USDY surged more than 66%. The pattern suggests some investors rotated toward yield products perceived as more directly anchored to traditional reserve mechanisms rather than crypto market activity. The shift may help stabilize parts of the stablecoin ecosystem even as crypto-native demand cools, though the broader question remains whether this growth can offset contraction elsewhere. First quarterly decline since Q3 2023 CEX .IO frames Q2 as a turning point: the first quarterly contraction since Q3 2023, with total supply at $312 billion. The 5.5% drop in adjusted transaction volume points to moderation not only in issuance but also in the flow of stablecoin-related activity. On the transaction side, the report shows total stablecoin transaction counts declined by 530 million to 4.48 billion. At the same time, transfers below $250 increased 5% to $19.39 billion. That mix points to relative resilience in smaller, retail-style usage, while weakness appears concentrated in higher-frequency, larger-value, and more automation-dependent segments. Q1 signals hinted at the slowdown The pullback followed early signs of cooling. In Q1 2026, stablecoin supply still rose by about $8 billion to a record $315 billion, according to reporting cited by CEX.IO. Yet the report notes that retail-sized transfers fell 16% in Q1, while automated activity accounted for roughly 76% of stablecoin transaction volume. By Q2, transaction counts dropped sharply even as sub-$250 transfers increased, suggesting the composition of activity shifted toward smaller transfers as overall usage softened. Broader crypto demand concerns The Q2 contraction also aligns with wider concerns about weakening momentum in crypto markets. Institutional data provider Talos recently pointed to declining stablecoin supply, spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, and slower Bitcoin purchases by Strategy as three demand channels that weakened in Q2. In comments cited by Cointelegraph, Talos's Tanay Ved said a rebound in stablecoin supply would be a useful indicator of "fresh capital coming back into the ecosystem more broadly," supporting onchain liquidity. Ved also emphasized that spot ETF flows remain a key signal of institutional appetite, and noted that ETF flows, corporate Bitcoin purchases, and stablecoin supply often move together as market momentum shifts. That framing positions stablecoins not only as settlement tools but also as a barometer of capital rotating into or out of crypto—especially in segments dependent on active trading and capital deployment. Looking ahead, the core question is whether Q2 marks a temporary reset or the start of a more sustained downtrend. CEX.IO's data shows a sharp internal reallocation—crypto-native yield tokens losing supply while treasury-backed products gain—making both the headline issuance trend and reserve-model mix important to watch in the next quarterly update.

Friday, July 3, 2026 Market snapshot Markets entered the final session of the week with a renewed focus on U.S. labor data after June nonfarm payrolls came in below expectations, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.2% from 4.3%. Traders pared back expectations for Fed tightening, with futures now leaning toward a December hike rather than October. Top headlines 1) Major coke producers agreed to launch a 10th round of coke price increases on July 3. 2) Zhongkuang Resources said the temporary maintenance shutdown is not expected to materially impact full-year lithium salt output and sales. 3) Lithium mine traders' spot inventory rose to 1.03 million tons, up 0.05 million tons week over week. 4) China's Ministry of Commerce said it supports bringing relevant U.S. agricultural products into a reciprocal tariff-reduction framework. 5) India's June palm oil imports fell 10.5% month over month to 492,000 tons. 6) The U.S. warned Iran that any move to alter the status quo in the Strait of Hormuz would be treated as a breach of agreements. 7) A downside payroll surprise cooled the dollar and delayed the market's projected timing for the next Fed rate increase. Macro - Strait of Hormuz: Saudi Al Arabiya TV, citing sources, reported the U.S. has told Iran it opposes any action aimed at changing the current status of the Strait of Hormuz. Any attempt to alter the status quo would be viewed as a violation of relevant agreements. - China-U.S. agricultural tariffs: On July 2, Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong said agriculture remains a key part of China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation. After recent consultations, both sides set goals to expand bilateral agricultural trade and agreed in principle to include relevant agricultural products in a reciprocal tariff-reduction framework. Companies will trade based on market principles and actual demand. - China NEVs: The China Passenger Car Association estimated June 2026 wholesale sales of new-energy passenger vehicles at 1.51 million units, up 22% year over year and 12% month over month. The segment is viewed as entering a clearer recovery phase and continues to outpace the broader auto market. - U.S. jobs report: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said June job gains fell sharply from the downwardly revised 129,000 in May and were below the 115,000 Bloomberg-survey forecast. The labor market showed cooling after three straight months of upside surprises. The dollar weakened as rate-hike expectations were pushed back. - Jobless claims: Initial claims for the week ended June 27 totaled 215,000, below the 220,000 consensus and 216,000 the prior week, signaling firms remain reluctant to conduct large-scale layoffs. Global futures moves - Precious metals: COMEX gold rose 1.30% to $4,135.50/oz; COMEX silver gained 1.54% to $61.44/oz. Softer Fed hike expectations, weaker payrolls, continued central-bank gold buying, and risk-off sentiment linked to adjustments in China's A-share market supported prices. - Crude: WTI slipped 0.17% to $68.46/bbl; Brent fell 0.01% to $71.56/bbl. With Middle East tensions easing and flows through the Strait of Hormuz rising, supply expectations improved and several institutions cut oil price forecasts. - Base metals (LME): Aluminum +0.23% to $3,083.0/ton; Lead +0.16% to $1,868.5/ton; Copper -0.10% to $13,285.5/ton; Nickel -0.37% to $16,295.0/ton; Zinc -0.76% to $3,472.5/ton; Tin -1.50% to $50,855.0/ton. Ferrous: key developments - Coke pricing: According to Jiaolink, major coking coal enterprises agreed to issue a letter on July 3 to initiate the 10th round of coke price hikes, lifting prices by 50–55 yuan/ton, with implementation required by July 6. They also proposed increasing self-regulated production cuts to 30% amid worsening losses. - Steel capacity swaps: Mysteel (incomplete statistics) said three steel mills announced capacity replacement plans in 1H 2026, involving 8.41 million tons of new steelmaking capacity and 4.5415 million tons of new ironmaking capacity, while phasing out 5.3877 million tons of steelmaking capacity and 5.2005 million tons of ironmaking capacity. - Rebar weekly: For the week ended July 2, Mysteel said rebar output and apparent demand rose after declines, mill inventories fell after rising, and social inventories increased for a second week. Output was 2.1652 million tons (+32,700 tons, +1.53% WoW). Mill inventory was 1.9306 million tons (-31,900 tons, -1.63% WoW). Social inventory was 4.9683 million tons (+96,900 tons, +1.99% WoW). Apparent demand was 2.1002 million tons (+212,700 tons, +11.27% WoW). - Coking coal operations: Mysteel reported capacity utilization across 523 coking coal mines at 67.0%, down 1.2 percentage points WoW. Daily raw coal output averaged 1.504 million tons, down 27,000 tons WoW; raw coal inventory was 4.412 million tons, down 20,000 tons WoW. Daily clean coal output averaged 652,000 tons, down 19,000 tons WoW; clean coal inventory was 1.841 million tons, up 102,000 tons WoW. Agriculture - Cotton (ICAC): The International Cotton Advisory Committee's July supply-and-demand outlook said 2026/27 production is expected to dip slightly while consumption and trade continue to expand. With import demand rising in India and China, global trade is projected to recover. For 2026/27, global output is forecast to fall 2% to 25.9 million metric tons; consumption to rise about 1% to 25.5 million metric tons; and trade to increase 2.6% to 9.6 million metric tons. - India edible oils: Dealers said June palm oil imports fell 10.5% MoM to 492,000 tons, a 14-month low. Soybean oil imports fell 23% MoM to 381,000 tons. Sunflower oil imports dropped 17.5% MoM to 244,000 tons, a three-month low. Total edible oil imports declined 16.6% MoM to 1.1 million tons, also a 14-month low. - Malaysia palm exports: SGS estimated Malaysia's palm oil exports for June 1–30 at 972,710 tons, up 7.15% from 907,763 tons in the same period last month. - China weather/El Niño: The China Meteorological Administration said sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific are expected to keep rising, with a strong to extreme eastern-type El Niño likely to form in summer and autumn. - U.S. soy exports (USDA): For the week ended June 25, net soybean export sales for 2025/26 were 42,000 metric tons versus market expectations of 300,000–650,000 metric tons, down from 455,000 the prior week. Sales for 2026/27 were 183,000 metric tons versus 902,000 the prior week. - U.S. drought monitor: As of June 30, 2026, the share of major U.S. crop areas under moderate-to-extreme drought (D1+) was 19% for soybean regions, down 3 percentage points from 22% last week, but up 11 points from 8% a year earlier. - Argentina crops: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said 2025/26 harvest progress reached 99.1% for soybeans and 52.9% for corn. It maintained forecasts of 50.1 million tons for soybeans and a record 64 million tons for corn. Energy and chemicals - Soda ash: Longzhong Information said China's soda ash inventories totaled 1.73 million tons as of the week ended July 2, up 0.056 million tons from Monday (+0.32%). Light soda ash inventory was 1.0411 million tons, down 0.092 million tons WoW; heavy soda ash was 0.6889 million tons, up 0.148 million tons WoW. - Float glass: As of July 2, float glass inventories at sampled enterprises were 76.059 million standard boxes, down 0.384 million standard boxes WoW (-0.5%), up 10.09% YoY. Inventory coverage rose to 34.4 days, up 0.2 days. - Singapore fuel oil: Enterprise Singapore data showed fuel oil inventories fell 6.48 million barrels to 19.654 million barrels for the week ended July 1, a two-week low. - Saudi exports: After Saudi Arabia resumed oil tanker loading and unloading in the Persian Gulf, crude exports rebounded near prewar levels. Bloomberg tanker-tracking data showed Saudi Arabia averaged 6.3 million barrels per day of crude transported over the six days through Wednesday. Metals - Zhongkuang Resources: The company disclosed abnormal share price movement after a cumulative deviation of more than 20% over three consecutive sessions. It said the maintenance shutdown will temporarily reduce lithium salt output, but expects full-year production and sales not to be significantly affected. It cited strong downstream demand and plans including resuming lithium salt production as self-produced lithium concentrate arrives, plus potential sales of part of its lithium concentrate. - Lithium ore inventories: Mysteel said as of July 2, spot inventory held by 32 sampled lithium ore traders totaled 103,000 metric tons, up 5,000 tons WoW. Sellable inventory was 56,000 tons, up 2,000 tons WoW. - Port stocks: Domestic port lithium ore inventories were 255,000 metric tons, up 54,000 tons WoW. Zhenjiang Port held 151,000 tons, up 26,000 tons WoW. Concentrated overseas shipments in June lifted arrivals above withdrawals. - Alumina: An alumina plant in Guizhou began equipment maintenance, shutting its calciner for about five days and affecting annual capacity of roughly 9 million tons. - SMM alumina operations: As of Thursday, national installed capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina was 118.42 million tons/year, with operating capacity at 87.95 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate slipped 0.23 percentage points to 74.27%. Research views - Oil: Everbright Futures said easing Middle East tensions and the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have kept oil prices under pressure, with China's main crude futures contract down more than 5% on Thursday, dragging broadly on energy and chemical products. Pricing remains geopolitics-driven, but as transport normalizes and the U.S. and Iran enter a 60-day negotiation window, the geopolitical premium is fading and near-term prices may stay rangebound. EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories fell 3.8 million barrels to 408.4 million last week, the lowest since September 2018, as refinery demand rose ahead of the July 4 holiday weekend. In Q2, Brent fell about $45/bbl, its largest quarterly drop since the 2008 global financial crisis; WTI fell about $31/bbl, the largest quarterly drop since 2020. - Rebar: Sanli Futures said steel-market imbalances are building as blast furnace iron output remains high at 2.4295 million metric tons, while downstream demand is seasonally soft due to the plum rain season and high temperatures. Rising coke prices are squeezing steel mill margins and have fueled speculation about potential maintenance shutdowns. If mills proceed with maintenance, supply pressure could ease. Near term, prices may remain weak and stable, with actual steel supply the key variable to watch. Calendar: key data and events 1) As of July 2, iron ore inventory at 45 Chinese ports; July 3 data pending. 2) July 3, 09:45: China's June RatingDog Services PMI. 3) July 3: Domestic refined oil price adjustment window opens.

J.P. Morgan analysts said Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, has adopted a new Bitcoin selling framework that could shift the firm from a pure BTC accumulator into a potential source of supply, adding what the bank described as a "manageable two-way risk" to the crypto market. The policy, branded the BTC Monetization Program, would allow Strategy to sell Bitcoin to raise as much as $1.25 billion in cash. The proceeds could be used to fund preferred stock dividends and interest costs, or to repurchase preferred or common shares as part of capital structure optimization. J.P. Morgan said any future BTC sales by Strategy could increase uncertainty and price volatility in Bitcoin. The analysts argued the risk was avoidable, suggesting the company could instead rely on equity issuance to support future dividend obligations. Strategy targets a minimum cash balance sufficient to cover 12 months of preferred dividends and interest. Its cash reserves currently stand at $2.55 billion, which J.P. Morgan estimates would cover about 17 months of payments. The bank recommended increasing liquidity to cover 24 to 36 months of these obligations. It said the move could come even if it results in the common stock trading at a discount to net asset value, as a larger buffer would help reassure investors the company is unlikely to be forced into near-term Bitcoin sales. (Source: ODAILY)