MARKETS: Michael Saylor posted "think bigger", a message widely read as signaling another Bitcoin purchase. In March, Strategy bought 46,233 BTC—nearly three times the roughly 16,200 BTC produced by miners globally during the month.

According to ME News, on April 13 (UTC+8), BIT posted on X that Bitcoin ETF flows have turned positive again and are poised to log a second straight month of net inflows. BIT said the scale remains limited, but the sentiment shift is notable. BIT highlighted parallels with the same period in 2025, when year-to-date inflows were initially flat before accelerating into a concentrated surge of nearly $30 billion. That influx helped fuel a sharp rebound after April's tariff policy rollout and supported gains through October. By comparison, BIT said the recent stabilization suggests Bitcoin has largely absorbed the selling pressure seen in January and February. The move back to net inflows in March marks the first positive reading since last October's pullback. BIT added that a muted start does not rule out a strong finish based on historical patterns. (Source: Foresight News)

Compiled by Jerry, ChainCatcher U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs: $816M net inflow U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $816 million in net inflows over the past week, with net buying on three trading days. Total assets under management climbed to $94.92 billion. Eight funds posted net inflows, led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) with $612 million. Source: Farside Investors U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs: $187M net inflow U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs brought in $187 million over the week, also posting net inflows on three days. Total net asset value reached $12.96 billion. BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) accounted for most of the demand with $168 million in net inflows. Four Ethereum spot ETFs were net positive. Source: Farside Investors Hong Kong spot crypto ETFs Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of 4.68 BTC last week, with total net asset value at $284 million. Harvest's Bitcoin holdings fell to 211.35 BTC, while China Asset Management remained at 2,570 BTC. Hong Kong spot Ethereum ETFs reported no net inflows; assets stood at $66.49 million. Source: SoSoValue Crypto ETF options snapshot As of April 10, total notional volume in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF options was $1.15 billion, with a notional long-to-short ratio of 2.27. As of April 9, notional open interest reached $22.63 billion, with a net long-to-short ratio of 1.52. Short-term activity has picked up and sentiment is tilted bullish; implied volatility was 44.74%. Source: SoSoValue Key developments Bitwise updates Hyperliquid ETF filing Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said Bitwise has amended its Hyperliquid ETF application again, setting the ticker to BHYP and listing an expense ratio of 67 bps (0.67%). He said such updates often suggest a launch is nearing. Canary Capital files for a PEPE ETF SEC filings show Canary Capital submitted an S-1 registration statement for the Canary PEPE ETF, with plans to begin the offering after the registration becomes effective. The firm's earlier wave of altcoin ETF filings had drawn skepticism from some observers. Nasdaq extends timeline for IBIT and ETHA transition to generic listing standards Nasdaq filed a rule change to push the planned transition of BlackRock's IBIT and ETHA from specific listing requirements to generic listing standards from Q1 2026 to Q3 2026, giving sponsor BlackRock more time. The change was submitted on March 31, 2026, and became effective immediately. BlackRock's Ethereum staking ETF takes 18% of staking rewards Fortune reported that BlackRock's iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB) launched today with a 0.25% management fee (temporarily discounted to 0.12%) and an 18% commission on total staking rewards generated by roughly $318 million of staked ETH held in the trust. The commission is split between BlackRock and Coinbase. With ETH staking yield around 2.74%, an 18% take rate equates to roughly 49 bps of total return. Falconedge CEO Roy Kashi said the 18% covers custody, slashing risk, validator costs and brand premium, estimating the operational cost floor for a staking ETF at about 5%. GlobalStake founder Richard Shorten said meaningful hidden fees can apply before yields reach the ETF. Cosmos co-founder Ethan Buchman called 18% reasonable for institutional products but expects it to compress to 15% or 10% over time. Twinstake sales VP Harriet Browning warned that extreme fee competition could lead some providers to cut corners on security and transparency. The 18% remains below the maximum 25% fee often paid by retail users staking ETH directly on major crypto platforms. Financial advisor Tyrone Ross questioned whether giving up 18% of staking rewards to BlackRock and Coinbase is worth it. Commentary and analysis Balchunas on Bitcoin 'day/night' ETFs: NGHT launches alongside MSBT attention Balchunas said that as markets watched the listing of Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF (MSBT), the Bitcoin After Dark ETF (NGHT) also launched Wednesday. Trading was modest on day one, then jumped on day two, with longer-term traction still uncertain. Research suggests "nighttime returns" often beat daytime returns, though long-term investors holding products like MSBT already capture both, limiting the practical difference. Balchunas said NGHT could gain acceptance if it attracts sustained inflows; without that, it may quickly fade. He added that Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF is positioned for meaningful success given the firm's distribution advantages. Morgan Stanley: new Bitcoin ETF posts record first-day trading for the bank Cointelegraph reported that Morgan Stanley's head of digital assets said the firm's newly launched Bitcoin ETF delivered the strongest first-day trading performance of any ETF product the bank has offered, with more crypto products in development. Balchunas: baby boomers add $500M to spot Bitcoin ETFs in a single day Balchunas said U.S. baby boomer investors quietly put about $500 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs during a period of market pressure and recurring macro headwinds, partially offsetting the year-to-date funding gap. Data still shows year-to-date net flows for Bitcoin ETFs remain slightly negative, suggesting broader investors are in wait-and-see mode, while the recent buying points to rising long-term allocation interest among some traditional capital.

Michael Saylor said Strategy is gearing up for another round of Bitcoin purchases, pairing the update with a cryptic post urging investors to "think bigger." Strategy now holds 766,970 Bitcoin. With an average cost basis of $75,644 per coin, the position is sitting on an unrealized loss of about $14.5 billion. The company has been funding its accumulation with STRC preferred shares. The structure implies an annualized return requirement of roughly 2.05% to cover dividend payments. The approach could come under pressure if Bitcoin trades sideways or declines over an extended period.

CoinDesk reported on Sunday that, despite ongoing geopolitical risks, analysts still see bitcoin climbing to $88,000 and beyond, citing crypto-specific tailwinds such as supportive flows. About 16 hours later, the chart is pushing back. Bitcoin (BTC) was rejected at a major technical barrier: a descending trendline that has guided prices lower since October 2025, when the token peaked above $126,000. Price rolled over on contact with that resistance. A descending trendline links a series of lower highs, often interpreted as waning buying power and increasing seller control. The longer it holds—and the more often price fails there—the more it reinforces the idea of a sustained bear phase. In BTC's case, the line has been intact for roughly six months. Since early February, bitcoin has rebounded from around $60,000 to above $71,000, recently trading near $70,841.40. While the move looks constructive in isolation, it still sits within the broader downtrend defined by the trendline. The overnight test and subsequent pullback marks a classic trendline "rejection," suggesting sellers defended the level as expected. Technicians typically look for a decisive close above the trendline on meaningful volume—not a brief intraday break—before treating it as a true trend reversal. Until that happens, the downtrend remains the dominant chart signal. The disconnect now is between fundamentals and price action. Analysts highlighted data such as the Coinbase premium, ETF inflows and macro factors as potential catalysts for an $88,000 rally. The chart, by contrast, is flashing caution after the rejection at the six-month bear-market trendline. Two paths are in focus. One is that the latest failure draws heavier selling and pushes BTC down toward $65,000. The other is that bitcoin grinds higher and ultimately breaks through the trendline—a development that would better align the technical picture with the bullish fundamental narrative. Until then, the chart and the bull case remain at odds.

Huoxing Finance reports that Bloomberg Senior Commodities Strategist Mike McGlone said in a post on X that the crypto bear market could still be in its early phase. He added that if market beta weakens, Bitcoin may have room to drop toward $10,000. McGlone noted that since Bitcoin spot ETFs began trading in January 2024, total returns for the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) have been broadly similar. Over the same period, IBIT's volatility has been about four times that of SPY, with a 200-day correlation close to 0.5. Without meaningfully higher returns, he said, that combination of elevated volatility and correlation typically works against optimal portfolio allocation. He also pointed to the expansion of the crypto universe since Bitcoin launched in 2009, saying the number of crypto assets has grown into the millions. In his view, most lack fundamental backing, yet many are still assigned valuations in the billions of dollars.

Bitcoin dropped to $71,000 following an order by President Donald Trump to impose a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

MARKET: More than 13 million Bitcoin addresses are currently holding BTC at a loss, according to Glassnode.

Some crypto industry watchers believe Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and recently singled out by The New York Times as the most likely identity behind Satoshi Nakamoto, may have had a second motive for engaging with the paper's reporting: generating no-cost publicity for Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company (BSTR), his bitcoin treasury firm nearing a public debut. Investigative reporter John Carreyrou said Back agreed to be photographed by a NYT photographer in Miami weeks before the story was published, raising questions about why someone who is not Satoshi would participate in a feature that was set to identify him as Satoshi. "If you're IPO'ing a company — it's pretty damn good PR. Particularly when the cost is roughly zero," ETF analyst James Seyffart wrote. The speculation comes as BSTR moves toward completing a SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners I. The transaction includes a $1.5 billion PIPE, described as the largest ever announced for a bitcoin treasury vehicle. BSTR is expected to launch with more than 30,000 BTC on its balance sheet, placing it among the largest public bitcoin treasury holders. The merger had been expected to close in Q1 2026, pending SEC review and shareholder approval. Whether the headlines were planned or simply welcomed, the renewed Satoshi attention arrived at a commercially advantageous moment.