Geopolitics

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is locked in an incredibly tight technical waiting game, trading near $70.31 on the 1-hour chart on June 30, 2026. The energy complex has experienced a massive shift over the last quarter, with futures collapsing roughly 30% from their springtime highs as the market aggressively adjusts to a post-war environment.

The US and Iran agreed to halt attacks on each other ahead of peace talks this week covering the Strait of Hormuz, easing geopolitical tensions. South Korea unveiled an $880 billion investment plan for chips and data centers, boosting expectations for global AI infrastructure spending. The Nasdaq rose more than 2% while the S&P 500 finished higher, and Brent crude hovered near $73 a barrel.

Donald Trump said on Truth Social that gasoline retailers should immediately lower pump prices to around $2.50 per gallon, warning of “big problems” if they do not. He previously instructed the Justice Department to examine oil companies for allegedly keeping pump prices high despite declining crude costs. The article also notes that oil prices rose earlier this year after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks, with a ceasefire reached in April and later extended amid mutual accusations of violations.

A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has led to a pause in most oil sanctions, and Iran is expected to sharply boost production and exports. Brent and WTI crude rose 1.6% and 2.2%, respectively, but markets are pricing in a potential supply glut as Middle East flows recover. Gold fell as renewed inflation and interest-rate hike concerns returned.

On June 29, the United States and Iran agreed to pause hostilities and allow commercial vessels to move freely through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 1.6% to $73.15 a barrel and WTI gained 2.2% to $70.75. U.S. equities rallied, with the Dow ending above 52,000 for the first time and the Nasdaq up 2.07% as technology shares led, while Alphabet jumped nearly 5% in its first session as a Dow component. Trading was lighter ahead of the Independence Day holiday week and was influenced by end-of-quarter repositioning.

Toyota’s global sales fell 7.2% year on year in May, extending declines to a fourth consecutive month, as demand in China stayed weak. The report says higher gasoline prices tied to the Middle East conflict have been a key drag on China’s auto market. Japan’s exports to the Middle East plunged 65.9% in the same month, while Toyota’s global output posted its first drop in three months. Overall, Japan’s eight major automakers recorded year-on-year declines in both global sales and production.

U.S. stocks finished higher after weekend tensions between the United States and Iran eased, with their technical teams expected to meet in Doha in the coming days to advance an interim peace deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a record close, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.04% and the S&P 500 gained 1.16%. Tech shares led the advance, and communication services was the strongest-performing sector. Nasdaq said SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 index on July 7, and Alphabet officially joined the Dow.

An escalating Iran–U.S. conflict has left ships stuck behind the Strait of Hormuz and badly damaged oil and gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, a disruption the International Energy Agency has called the largest supply shock in global oil market history. In parts of Canada, gasoline climbed above $2 per liter. The article argues the spike has highlighted how deeply cities depend on gasoline-powered cars, while offering no near-term path to supply relief as the supply-demand mismatch persists.

On June 29, U.S. stocks rose after weekend hostilities between the United States and Iran eased, with technical teams from both sides set to hold talks in Doha on an interim peace deal. Tech shares rebounded sharply, lifting the Nasdaq 1.84%, the S&P 500 1.07% and the Dow 0.69%. Comcast, SpaceX and Alphabet were among the leading gainers. RBC raised its 12-month S&P 500 target to 8,150 points.

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have eased, but shipping remains cautious in the Strait of Hormuz, keeping crude trading in the $60s to low $70s a barrel. Michigan’s average gasoline price rose to $4.08 a gallon, up 82 cents from a year earlier. AAA and GasBuddy said holiday travel demand is lifting pump prices, while oil-cost pass-through and a geopolitical risk premium are supporting near-term pricing. The article also notes Exxon was named by President Donald Trump in a requested probe, but cites no evidence of a material impact on its operations or financials.