September Fed hike odds slide after July jobs report sharply undershoots expectations
AI Market Summary
A sharp July U.S. payrolls miss drove market pricing toward a Fed hold in September (FedWatch and Kalshi probabilities shifted materially), pushing Treasury yields lower and equities higher. The news eases near-term tightening expectations, though markets still assign meaningful odds of hikes later in the year, keeping rate-path uncertainty elevated. Next week's CPI print becomes the key catalyst for validating or reversing the repricing.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCSINASDAQ1002USD/USDT+0.14%
AI Insight · NCSINASDAQ1002USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Market pricing for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell sharply after the U.S. July jobs report came in well below expectations. Data from the Kalshi prediction market show the probability of the Fed holding rates steady rose from 50% before the report to 65%. CME’s FedWatch tool puts the hold-steadier odds at 60%, up from 45% on Thursday and about one-in-three a week earlier, while markets still price in a 75% chance of a hike by December.
