On December 8, Bitcoin's 10- and 50-week simple moving averages crossed, a signal highlighted by Ali Martinez that has historically preceded large drawdowns. As 2025 ended, BTC traded over 30% below its all-time high and hovered just above $89,200. Martinez cautions this setup could imply a 50%–60% retreat toward $50,000–$38,000, while analyst Mags outlines scenarios tied to USDT dominance.

Bitcoin’s long-term holders have cut back on selling, with distribution pressure deep in the accumulation zone and average daily spending at 221 BTC, while the SOPR shows they still transact at a profit. Scarcity metrics such as the Stock-to-Flow Ratio at 798.8k and a Stock-to-Flow Reversion of 2.09 point to valuation compression, as spot buyers maintain demand and Bitcoin trades in a consolidation range between $84,473 and $93,476. Liquidations of about $6.6 million, skewed toward $4.64 million in short positions versus $1.95 million in longs, suggest downside pressure is weakening as buyers absorb forced selling.

Bitcoin ended the year with an annual loss of about 6%, breaking its usual pattern of one negative year followed by three positive ones. On-chain metrics from Axel Adler show cumulative Net Taker Flow and short-term momentum have shifted into moderate negative territory, indicating controlled but persistent sell-side pressure. BTC is now consolidating between $88,000 and $90,000 below key moving averages, with crucial support in the $85,000–$88,000 zone and resistance around $92,000–$95,000.

As 2026 begins, Alibaba's latest Qwen3-MAX AI model outlines bullish and bearish price paths for XRP, Solana, and Bitcoin, highlighting the potential for sharp volatility. The system sketches XRP trading between roughly $1.50 and $5, Solana targeting a possible $300 to $400 range, and Bitcoin eyeing levels above $150,000 in optimistic scenarios. These projections hinge on factors such as support and resistance zones, ETF flows, and broader market conditions, while also flagging downside risks below key price thresholds.

Mining executive Frank Giustra said Bitcoin could trade lower in 2026 if corporate treasuries unwind their holdings. Grayscale's 2026 outlook argues any unwind would have limited market impact, while Polymarket assigns a 75% chance to an MSCI delisting by Q1 2026 and one trader highlights $74k as a potential area where the correction may ease.

Bitcoin traded in the $80,000s on Dec. 31 while markets priced Federal Reserve cuts. November CPI printed 2.7% YoY and core 2.6% YoY, but quality caveats limited repricing, according to Reuters. High 10-year TIPS real yields near 1.90%, record $74.6 billion SRF usage, and roughly $3.4 billion spot ETF outflows have kept price confined around $81,000–$93,000.

On January 2, 2026, Michael Saylor's Bitcoin-focused company Strategy saw its shares edge higher in early trading, even as its market-to-net-asset-value (mNAV) ratio hovered around 1.02. With a roughly 66% drop from its July peak, a basic market cap near $45 billion and more than 672,000 BTC on its balance sheet, the stock is approaching a point where it could trade below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, raising questions over its role as a proxy for direct BTC exposure.

Bitcoin is trading around $89,900 with a market cap near $1.79 tn and 24-hour trading volume above $44 bn, after a more than 120% day-on-day surge in activity. Price action on the 2-hour chart shows a symmetrical triangle between resistance from $93,500 and support in the $85,800–$87,000 zone, while key levels sit around $90,500–$90,900 on the upside and $87,000 on the downside. Alongside this, the Maxi Doge meme coin presale has raised over $4.39 million, with its $MAXI token priced at $0.000276 and offering staking-based rewards.