Venezuela is developing a national banking infrastructure that will allow citizens to hold, transfer, and convert Bitcoin and stablecoins through regulated financial institutions. The system, expected to launch by December 2025, aims to formalize widespread informal crypto usage driven by hyperinflation. Financial technology provider Conexus, which processes nearly half of the country's digital transfers, is building the blockchain infrastructure to connect local banks with crypto networks.

Bitcoin is retesting the 0.85 supply quantile at $109,000, a threshold indicating 85% of circulating supply holds unrealized gains. Holding this level has historically triggered major rallies, while breaching it often leads to declines toward the 0.75 quantile at $98,000, data show. The cryptocurrency briefly dipped below this mark multiple times in recent sessions but recovered each time.

Bitcoin is trading near $109,700, approximately 20% below the power law model's fair value of $136,100, data show. The model places BTC within a rising channel with support at $48,300 and resistance near $491,800. Recent exchange-traded fund flows have introduced volatility that could drive price toward either boundary.

Bitcoin fell below $110,000 in a sharp decline that triggered panic selling following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut and announcement regarding quantitative tightening. The cryptocurrency briefly tested $108,500 before attempting recovery. Analysts identify $117,000 as the Point of Control—the price zone with highest traded volume—which now serves as a key battleground for bulls seeking to re-establish momentum.

MicroStrategy's valuation premium relative to its Bitcoin treasury contracted to approximately 1.3× its market-adjusted net asset value, despite reporting a $2.8 billion net income beat for the third quarter, according to Bloomberg data. The multiple declined from earlier periods when the premium exceeded 2×, reflecting diminished investor enthusiasm for the balance-sheet Bitcoin strategy. At least three analysts lowered price targets while maintaining buy ratings, citing concerns over reduced momentum and slower capital issuance heading into the fourth quarter.

Bitcoin has not yet reached its cycle peak, market analyst Joao Wedson said, citing Alphractal's Max Intersect SMA Model. The model, which accurately identified tops in 2017 and 2021, has not triggered its signal. Wedson projects a potential apex between $143,000 and $146,000 based on historical cycle patterns.

Bitcoin Lightning Network public capacity stands at approximately 4,132 BTC with 16,294 nodes and 41,118 channels, data show. Exchange integrations by Coinbase, OKX, Kraken, and Binance now route material payment volumes through private channels that do not appear in public capacity statistics. Merchant adoption has expanded, with Lightning-routed Bitcoin payments nearly doubling from 2023 to mid-2024.

Bitcoin has reached its first significant structural support test of the current cycle, according to crypto analyst Dom. In a live analysis on October 29, Dom warned that failure to stabilize and reclaim the $111,000–$114,000 range within the next one to two weeks could trigger a retracement to the mid-to-low $90,000s. The analyst emphasized this marks the first genuine test for the rally that has defined this market cycle.