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Global Long-Term Bonds Draw Investors as Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs
Long-term government bonds punished holders for much of this year. With yields now high enough, investors are starting to return. After a sustained selloff, global long-term government bonds are again drawing institutional buyers. Yields have climbed to multi-decade highs, and more asset managers believe potential returns are sufficient to offset interest-rate and fiscal risks. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield approached 5.4% this month, its highest since 2002. Japan 10-year yield reached 3.14%, highest in about 30 years. Higher yields are pulling back investors who had cut long-term exposure.
The rebound is visible in returns. Bloomberg data show the global government bond index with maturities over 10 years returned 2.2% in October, well ahead of 1-3 year government bonds, which were nearly flat. That was the first month since February that long-term government bonds outperformed short-term paper.
Valuations have become more attractive, and institutional buying has returned. JPMorgan Asset Management, Aegon Asset Management, Ninety One and Allianz Global Investors have refocused on long-term government bonds. Bob Michele, global head of fixed income at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said long-term bonds had become too cheap, with yields well away from fair levels. He has recently added long-term government bonds in the United States, Australia and Japan. Higher yields improve future holding returns, while recent volatility in technology stocks has pushed some capital toward government bonds. Investors are reassessing the return prospects of heavy artificial-intelligence capital spending, leaving high-valued stocks more exposed.
Fund flows reflect the shift. The iShares U.S. Treasury ETF has taken inflows for a second consecutive month. The iShares Core S&P 500 ETF has swung from net inflows to net outflows. Safe-haven demand added to the rally. On Friday, as U.S. technology stocks sold off, Treasury yields fell by at least 4 basis points across the curve; 10-year yields in Australia and New Zealand each dropped more than 5 basis points. The U.S. 10-year yield fell about 37 basis points in October, the largest monthly drop since December 2023.
Japan and the UK have also rebounded as supply and demand conditions improve. Japanese government bonds had been pressured by expectations of fiscal expansion, Bank of Japan rate increases and weak demand from traditional buyers. After yields rose to historic highs, foreign institutions began adding exposure again. Prudential Group, Allianz Global Investors and BNP Paribas Asset Management have recently increased focus on or holdings of Japanese medium- to long-term government bonds. The 30-year Japanese government bond yield has fallen nearly 40 basis points from this month high of 4.25%. Japan Securities Dealers Association data show Japanese life insurers have been net buyers of ultra-long government bonds for four consecutive months, and foreign investors for three.
UK long gilts have benefited from supply adjustments. The UK Debt Management Office said on Wednesday that gilts with maturities over 15 years are expected to make up less than 7% of issuance this fiscal year, the lowest share since the 1990-91 fiscal year. The plan extends the government push to reduce issuance of long-term, high-cost debt. After the announcement, yields on UK 20-year and 30-year government bonds fell to around one-month lows. Royal London Asset Management has moved to an overweight position in UK 30-year gilts. Craig Inches, head of rates and cash, said yields have risen enough to justify extending portfolio duration.
Inflation and fiscal pressures remain unresolved, and the durability of the rebound is still debated. Prices have recovered, but the core risks behind the selloff have not disappeared. Higher energy prices, monetary tightening by major central banks and deteriorating government finances may still force investors to demand more compensation for holding long-term bonds. The Federal Reserve held rates steady this week but raised its assessment of U.S. economic growth. Chair Powell did not commit to a future rate path, leaving investors split on whether the Fed needs more aggressive tightening.
In Europe, political and fiscal instability in France continues to weigh on the government bond market. After the European Central Bank held rates steady on Thursday, expectations for potential ECB intervention to curb French bond selling were affected, and some European long-term government bond prices fell again. U.S. fiscal policy is another key focus. Long-term Treasury yields have come off their highs, easing financing pressure on the Treasury. Markets had speculated the Treasury might reduce 20-year and 30-year issuance; several banks expect any changes may not come before 2027. The U.S. midterm elections on November 3 added policy uncertainty. A divided Congress could limit further fiscal expansion. If Republicans unexpectedly retain control of both chambers, markets may reassess spending and inflation risks.
Hilary Winn, investment director at AJ Bell, said the current performance is better viewed as a temporary respite than a trend reversal. The firm still favors bonds with higher credit quality and shorter maturities. Oliver Faizallah, head of fixed income research at Raymond James Wealth Management, said economic slowdown and flight-to-safety buying may keep yields suppressed. Fiscal easing or an escalation of conflict that revives inflation could trigger another selloff in long-term Treasuries.