Tanker traffic is a better gauge of Hormuz risk than crude prices
AI Market Summary
Despite a 60-day ceasefire lifting tanker transits through Hormuz to ~242/week, flows remain far below pre-war levels and the shortage of westbound ballast vessels is keeping Middle East–Asia freight rates (TD3C) extremely elevated. The report suggests up to ~9mb/d of potential supply is being withheld due to logistical instability, raising the risk of tighter effective global crude availability and supporting near-term oil risk premia.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDT-2.36%
AI Insight · NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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A 60-day ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran was signed in mid-June, lifting tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz to about 242 vessels per week, up from roughly 60 during the conflict. Traffic remains far below pre-war levels of more than 700 ships a week.
Even with the improvement, the market is still grappling with a severe shortage of westbound crude tankers sailing in ballast. Freight rates continue to reflect the dislocation: the Middle East-to-China TD3C route is priced around $313,000 per day, well above the long-term average of about $100,000 per day.
The report estimates that around 9 million barrels per day of potential capacity has been voluntarily shut in due to unreliable shipping conditions. If transport flows fail to normalize, the curtailed output could widen the global supply gap.
