Tanker flows through Hormuz rebound to 242 a week as freight stays elevated
AI Market Summary
Despite Brent stabilising near pre-strike levels, tanker flows through Hormuz remain far below prewar norms and empty westbound capacity is scarce. Elevated Middle East→China freight (TD3C) signals persistent security and logistics tightness, risking prolonged "stuck production" of ~9 mb/d across Gulf producers. Once the backlog of trapped barrels clears, physical supply may tighten again if shipping does not normalise.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDT-2.36%
AI Insight · NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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A 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire signed in mid-June has lifted tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz to 242 vessels a week, up from about 60 during the conflict but still well below the pre-war level of 700-plus. The recovery remains uneven, with too few westbound ballast crude tankers available to load. The Middle East-to-China TD3C freight index is still at $313,000 per day versus a long-run average of less than $100,000 per day, keeping transport costs elevated. About 9 million barrels per day of potential capacity has been voluntarily curtailed due to shipping uncertainty, a shortfall that could widen the global supply gap if it does not return.
