West Africa flooding and El Niño risks push cocoa futures toward 5.5-month highs
AI Market Summary
Cocoa futures are firming as West African supply risks rise: abnormal heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana are disrupting transport and elevating disease risk, while El Niño (with elevated odds of a "Super El Niño") could later tighten moisture and reduce yields. Early surveys point to a materially smaller 2026/27 Ivory Coast crop and StoneX has trimmed global surplus estimates, supporting prices despite high inventories and softer grind data in the West.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT+2.29%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Unusually heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast and Ghana has disrupted transport to farms and ports and raised disease risks for cocoa trees, tightening supply expectations. Japan’s Meteorological Agency has confirmed El Niño formation, while NOAA puts the odds of a “Super El Niño” at 67%, a scenario that could worsen drought stress. Early assessments indicate Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 crop could be about 1.8 MMT, down 18% year on year, and StoneX has cut its projected global cocoa surplus to 149,000 MT. ICE and London cocoa futures rose more than 1.6% in a session, nearing 5.5-month highs.
