Soft U.S. Jobs Report Cools Fed Hike Bets; Treasury Yields Slip
AI Market Summary
Weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls reduced perceived odds of near-term Fed tightening, driving a rally in Treasuries and pushing the 2-year yield sharply lower. Fed funds futures now imply a materially lower probability of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting and a shallower long-run hiking path. The shift lowers the near-term rates impulse and is typically negative for the U.S. dollar while supportive for risk assets.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCSIDXY2USD/USDT-0.59%
AI Insight · NCSIDXY2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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ME News reported on July 2 (UTC+8) that a weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls release led traders to scale back expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate increases, lifting U.S. Treasury prices. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield fell 6 basis points to 4.11%, while the 10-year yield eased 2 basis points to 4.46%. Fed funds futures now imply roughly a 20% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's meeting later this month, down from 33% before the data. Markets are also pricing in fewer than two 25-basis-point hikes through March 2027. (Jin10) (Source: ODAILY)
