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Reuters

War-driven supply shocks and peace hopes swing LME metals in H1 2026

AI Market Summary
Reuters highlights how Iran-war disruptions and shifting peace expectations drove sharp swings across LME metals in H1 2026. Aluminium saw the most direct shock from Gulf smelter outages and logistics constraints, tightening inventories and lifting prices before the war premium faded. Copper remains range-bound amid conflicting growth risks, sulphuric-acid shortages, and looming U.S. tariff uncertainty, while zinc and nickel reflect evolving deficits and Indonesian policy risk.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOALUMINIUM2USD/USDT+0.32%
AI Insight · NCCOALUMINIUM2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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In the first half of 2026, the Iran war disrupted Persian Gulf supply chains, with missile attacks from February forcing aluminium smelter outages and cutting regional output at an annualised rate of 2 million tonnes. LME aluminium inventories fell to just over 400,000 tonnes, a multi-year low, while the three-month price reached a four-year high of $3,787.50 a tonne in early June. Copper, zinc and other LME metals also rallied, supported by a geopolitics-driven premium and shifting supply-demand dynamics.