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LME metals swung sharply on war risks and peace hopes in H1 2026

AI Market Summary
Geopolitical disruption tied to the Iran war is tightening Persian Gulf aluminium supply, with smelter shutdowns cutting annualized output by ~2 million tons and pushing LME aluminium inventories to multi-year lows near 400k tons. The resulting supply shock and risk premium helped lift 3-month aluminium to a four-year high, while copper and zinc also benefited from broader LME metals tightness and geopolitical pricing.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCOALUMINIUM2USD/USDT+0.67%
AI Insight · NCCOALUMINIUM2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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LME base metals saw sharp two-way moves in the first half of 2026 as the Iran war disrupted Gulf supply chains. Missile attacks from February forced aluminum smelters in the region to shut, cutting annualized aluminum output by 2 million tonnes. LME aluminum inventories slid to just over 400,000 tonnes, a multi-year low, and three-month aluminum hit a four-year peak of $3,787.50 a tonne in early June. Copper, zinc and other LME metals also rallied, lifted by heightened geopolitical risk premia and shifting structural supply-demand dynamics.
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