Cocoa Futures Rally as Weather Threatens Global Supply
AI Market Summary
ICE cocoa futures in New York and London surged as excessive rainfall in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana disrupted farm and port logistics and raised disease risks (brown rot, black pod). El Niño confirmation and elevated "super El Niño" odds increase downside risk to the next main crop cycle starting September. Early signs of weaker pod development and reduced global surplus expectations tighten the supply outlook, lifting near-term price sensitivity.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT-0.49%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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Cocoa futures in New York and London jumped on Tuesday. ICE New York cocoa (CCU26) gained 2.23%, while London cocoa (CAN26) rose 2.80%.
The rally was driven by supply concerns in West Africa. Excessive rainfall in Ivory Coast and Ghana has disrupted transport between farms and ports and raised the risk of crop diseases, including brown rot and black pod.
Weather risks are also building ahead of the main 2026/27 season starting in September. Japan's Meteorological Agency has confirmed the onset of El Nino, and NOAA puts the probability of a "super El Nino" at 67%.
Early assessments indicate underdeveloped cherry fruit in Ivory Coast, with output projected at 1.8 million tonnes, down 18% year on year. StoneX has already lowered its forecast for the global cocoa surplus.
