Based on monthly return data from Coinglass, Bitcoin is set to finish January 2026 down 10.17% after briefly topping $97,000, while February 2026 is tracking a 12.12% decline following a drop to $60,000. If March 2026 also closes negative, it would mark six straight red months, exceeding the five-month stretch recorded in 2018.

On Monday, February 16, Bitcoin derivatives funding rates climbed by more than 140%, indicating that leveraged traders significantly boosted their bullish positions. Despite this, overall open interest edged down 0.08%, suggesting existing traders are repositioning rather than new capital entering the market. Bitcoin's spot price was still about 1% lower around $68,520, leaving the market exposed to potential long squeezes if the anticipated rebound fails to appear.

On Feb. 13, Bitcoin saw its largest short‑liquidation spike since September 2024, with 10,700 BTC shorts cleared as price rebounded from $65,799 to $69,434. It later hit $70,941 on Feb. 15 before easing to $69,333, while traders prepared for Fed minutes and the core PCE inflation report.

On 16 February 2026, Metaplanet Inc. reported FY2025 revenue rising 738.3% to ¥8.905 billion and operating profit increasing 1,694.5% to ¥6.287 billion. The company disclosed a roughly ¥95 billion net loss driven by a non-cash Bitcoin valuation decline and held 35,102 BTC as of 31 December 2025.

On February 16, CryptoQuant analyst Woo Minkyu reported that Bitcoin's adjusted SOPR fell back to roughly 0.92–0.94, a band historically associated with bear‑market stress. The metric sits below 1.0, and analysts caution that failing to reclaim 1.0 could signal a broader downturn; BTC was $68,852.57, down 1.2% on the day, up 0.4% on the week, and off 27.1% for the month.

On 16 February 2026, on-chain data from CryptoQuant indicated that a group of long-term Bitcoin accumulator addresses has been purchasing around 372,000 BTC per month during the latest market pullback. These wallets, which follow strict criteria excluding known exchanges and miners, sharply increased buying from about 10,000 BTC per month in September 2024, suggesting some investors are using the price decline as a strategic accumulation phase.

An advanced AI model has projected that Bitcoin will mostly trade sideways in the coming weeks, with a modest upward bias after the recent correction. Following several weeks of sharp volatility that erased about $450 billion from the crypto market, BTC has stabilized between $64,000 and $71,000 and is currently near $68,900. Based on these conditions as of February 16, ChatGPT estimates Bitcoin could reach $72,300 by March 1, 2026, implying a 4.93% gain from the prevailing price.

On Sunday, Bitcoin closed above the 200‑week EMA near $68,343 and just below the 2021 peak around $69,000. CoinGlass counted over $250 million in 24‑hour crypto liquidations as traders rebuilt longs under $68,000; macro focus turns to Friday's PCE and Q4 GDP, while on‑chain levels converge near the realized price around $55,800.