Technical Analysis

Bitcoin stabilized around $87,000 as U.S. spot exchange-traded funds recorded $129 million in net inflows on November 25, reversing weeks of sustained redemptions. Approximately one-third of bitcoin supply remains below breakeven prices, with long-term holders accumulating while short-term cohorts drive selling pressure. Analysts view the current period as bitcoin's first major institutional stress test, with market direction hinging on Federal Reserve guidance, government shutdown resolution, and post-tax-season capital flows.

US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $3.7 billion in outflows during November, the largest monthly withdrawal since their launch, according to SoSoValue data. Bitcoin fell more than 35% from its October all-time high of $126,000, reaching $80,542 on November 21, the lowest level since April. Ethereum ETFs experienced $1.6 billion in outflows over the same period.

Bitcoin is trading near $87,000 following a 4% weekly decline, according to CoinGecko. Analysts have identified $85,000 as a critical support level and $88,000 as immediate resistance. A break above or below these thresholds could drive the price toward $93,000 or $75,000, respectively.

Bitcoin has fallen from its all-time high of $126,000 to approximately $80,000, erasing over $600 billion in market capitalization. The cryptocurrency currently trades near $87,000 as traders monitor critical support zones. Three primary factors are driving the downturn: Federal Reserve policy shifts, institutional capital outflows combined with leveraged position liquidations, and tightening global liquidity conditions.

BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net outflows exceeding $66 million across November 24-25, according to Coinglass data. IBIT saw $149.1 million in redemptions on November 24, followed by $83 million in inflows the next day. The withdrawals occurred as Bitcoin rebounded toward $88,000, marking a shift from IBIT's previous position as the dominant inflow leader among U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin's recovery attempt has stalled around $87,500-$88,000 after dropping below $81,000, prompting debate over whether a bottom has formed. Bearish social sentiment, negative MVRV ratios, and six consecutive weeks of whale selling suggest further downside risk. Analysts note a short-term bounce above $90,000 remains possible, though momentum indicators point to continued weakness.

Bitcoin has maintained support above $80,000 since dropping to that level on November 21. On-chain data show institutional wallets reducing positions while mid-sized holders accumulate. Technical indicators point to weakening selling pressure, though distribution from large whale cohorts continues.

Kaspa (KAS) saw open interest rise 42% to $66.92 million within 24 hours, driven by leveraged long positions with a positive funding rate of 0.0035%. However, active addresses fell 97.72% from 513,110 on November 11 to 11,770, while on-chain data showed distribution patterns and reduced network engagement. Despite $1.3 million in selling pressure over 48 hours, 54.84 million addresses maintained non-zero balances, suggesting stability in holder base even as momentum indicators weakened.

Bitcoin has rebounded toward the $87,000 to $90,000 range after declining from $106,000 to $80,600 over 10 days. While whale holders with over 10,000 BTC continue selling, mid-sized holders in the 10–1,000 BTC range are accumulating. Data shows demand from accumulator addresses reached 365,000 BTC on November 23, up from 254,000 BTC on November 1.

A major institutional player executed a $2 billion Bitcoin options strategy on Deribit, positioning for a recovery toward six-figure price levels. The trade structure suggests conviction that recent market liquidations have cleared the path for upward movement. Retail investors continue selling while larger holders accumulate.