Bitcoin is attempting to hold the $90,000–$91,000 area after a rejection at $94,000, with volatility elevated and sentiment split. According to Axel Adler, BTC sits below the Short-Term Holder cost basis near $100,200 and key moving averages. CryptoQuant data places STH MVRV around 0.92, signaling unrealized losses and persistent sell pressure from short-term holders.

Bitcoin dropped from $94.7K to $90K mid‑week as sentiment turned to fear, while spot BTC ETFs saw $729 million net outflows on January 6–7 after inflows in the first two days of 2026. On January 8, Asian equities fell over 1%, BTC slipped 1.4%, and holding the $89.2K 50‑day MA is pivotal, with recovery hinging on reclaiming the $99.1K short‑term holder cost basis.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said Bitcoin is likely to face several months of low-volatility, sideways price action as new capital inflows into BTC have largely stalled. He argued that capital has rotated into equities and commodities and that long-term institutional holders, including a firm with 673,000 BTC, make a deep crash less likely. On-chain metrics such as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss and recent reports on market structure suggest a slower, grinding phase, while analysts remain divided on the outlook for the rest of 2026.

The state of Florida is advancing SB 1038, a bill to establish a Bitcoin-focused strategic reserve targeted for 2026, after narrowing the scope of an earlier, stalled proposal. The measure would create a standalone reserve under the state's finance department, limited to cryptocurrencies with an average market capitalization of at least $500 billion over the past two years, a threshold currently met only by Bitcoin. Florida's legislative process is still in early stages and trails other states, some of which have already approved or funded similar reserves.

According to VanEck's long-term capital study, Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050 on a projected 15% CAGR from about $88,000. The framework spans a "Settlement Pivot", where BTC processes 5–10% of cross‑border trade and 5% of domestic activity, and a "Reserve Pivot" tied to G7 debt concerns, with outcomes from a $130,000 bear case to a $53.4 million bull case.

In 2025 Bitcoin surged to a series of record highs above $126,000 before sliding to around $80,000 by year-end, leaving it roughly 30% below its peak. For 2026, analysts and industry executives project a wide trading band between $75,000 and $225,000, citing factors such as ETF demand, institutional lending and potential U.S. regulatory shifts. At the same time, Bank of America has upgraded Coinbase shares to Buy, reiterating a $340 price target on the back of its expanding product suite and tokenization initiatives.

On December 2025, South Korea’s Supreme Court ruled that Bitcoin held on cryptocurrency exchanges can be seized in criminal investigations, after reviewing a money laundering case involving 55.6 BTC valued at about $413,000. The court held that seizure under the Criminal Procedure Act covers both physical objects and electronic information, confirming Bitcoin’s status as seizable virtual property and aligning South Korea with other jurisdictions that now recognize digital assets as property.

Analysts argue that Bitcoin is likely entering an extended sideways phase, as capital shifts toward equities and commodities without triggering heavy crypto selling. On-chain data highlights slower fresh inflows and a growing share of long-term institutional holders, while macro indicators show global liquidity expanding and positioning Bitcoin as a late-cycle asset that may respond with a lag. This backdrop suggests reduced crash risk in the near term but also a market lacking immediate upside catalysts.