Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone has shared a chart-based view suggesting Bitcoin's most frequently traded level since 2023 sits near $28,000, despite a cycle average around $66,000. He argues that Bitcoin's tight correlation with the Nasdaq-100 and a cooling in equity valuations point to a "reverse wealth effect," implying greater downside risk if stock markets fail to keep advancing.

On February 18, analyst Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin's price action is compressing inside a symmetrical triangle just under the $70,000 zone, implying a potential 15% move up or down. The pattern features lower highs around $70,000–$72,000 and higher lows above about $64,000, with a breakout eyed toward either $78,000 on the upside or the $58,000 region on the downside. As of press time, Bitcoin traded near $67,226, while technical indicators such as the 50-day and 200-day SMAs and a 14-day RSI around 35.78 continue to point to fragile sentiment.

BlackRock's IBIT Spot Bitcoin ETF 13F filing revealed Laurore Ltd. as a new holder with a $436 million Bitcoin position, which Bitwise's Jeff Park links to Chinese investors using an offshore structure. While Hong Kong spot Bitcoin ETFs manage 3,870 BTC worth about $264.9 million, U.S. institutional spot ETF NAV totals 682,830 BTC valued at $54.49 billion, even after a 66.6% drop in AUM since Bitcoin's October 2025 peak. Institutional sentiment remains cautious as large holders continue selling, putting further pressure on Bitcoin's price outlook.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of $104.9 million during Tuesday's session, alongside trading volume just above $3 billion. That compares with the February 5 record of $14.7 billion, as fourth-quarter filings showed major reallocations among institutions. New entrants like Laurore and shifts by Brevan Howard, Mubadala and Goldman Sachs underscore ongoing portfolio adjustments.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $104.9 million in net outflows on Tuesday, while total trading volume slipped to just over $3 billion from the $14.7 billion peak on Feb. 5. In Q4 2025, Hong Kong-based Laurore disclosed a $436.2 million single purchase of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF, alongside major position changes by institutions such as Jane Street, Brevan Howard and Mubadala Investment.

Jane Street disclosed holding roughly 20.3 million shares of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust as of December 31, 2025. The Q4 2025 position has refocused attention on recurring sell pressure in Bitcoin and related ETFs around 10 AM ET. While rumors of coordinated suppression remain unverified, market-structure explanations such as hedging and arbitrage are also being discussed.

On 18 February 2026, Bitcoin was trading near $68,000 after a multi‑month decline that nearly halved its price from an October record. Traders were watching the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes, due later that day, for signals on future U.S. interest rates and their impact on cryptocurrencies and growth stocks.

Bitcoin remains more than 45% below its all-time high, while key on-chain indicators show growing strain among long-term holders. The LTH SOPR has dropped to 0.88, implying coins are being sold at a loss, and inflows from these holders to Binance have climbed to roughly twice their annual average on several recent days. Over the past two years retail investors have offloaded more than 1.2 million BTC, with institutions absorbing much of this supply, as the ongoing correction shifts into a more fragile adjustment phase.