Bitcoin has fallen over 30% since early October, shifting sentiment from optimism to caution as some market participants view the move as a possible peak. A new thesis argues the classic four-year pattern may be giving way to a structurally supported supercycle. Price action remains weak below 90,000 dollars, with 85,000–86,000 highlighted as key support.

On-chain data shows Bitcoin active wallets have dropped to 2023 lows while the Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 11, pointing to extreme fear and thinning liquidity as the year-end approaches. Analysts note that Bitcoin’s price is hovering near $86,000 above the $81,500 True Market Mean Price, identifying $81,000 as key downside support and $100,000 as the level that must be reclaimed to negate bearish momentum.

Bitcoin briefly pushed toward $90,000, triggering a cluster of short liquidations around $89,500 to $90,500 before price quickly reversed below $87,000. With major long-liquidation pools concentrated between $84,000 and $80,000 and momentum indicators weakening, downside liquidity now appears more significant than resistance overhead.

Analysts say Bitcoin's recent weakness could extend into the $65,000–$75,000 area, but they view a potential move to $70,000 as part of a broader macro reset rather than the start of a new bear market. Traders are tracking a possible three-day bullish divergence and past recoveries after oversold RSI readings, while long-term models still outline a potential price path toward $300,000 by 2029. In this view, deeper pullbacks are interpreted as building the base for the next structural uptrend.

Bitcoin traded near $89,000 after its 14-day relative strength index dropped below 30 in mid-November, a level many traders treat as a capitulation signal. An event-study chart shared by Julien Bittel compares this oversold break with the previous five such instances and sketches an average path toward roughly $180,000 about 90 days later, implying about a 105% gain if repeated. Analysts now focus on key levels such as $106,400, ETF flow trends, and liquidity conditions to gauge whether the current rebound can evolve from a range-bound bounce into a sustained advance.

On December 17, Bitcoin spiked about $3,300 in 30 minutes and then fell $3,400 within 45 minutes, triggering widespread liquidations. More than 120,000 traders saw nearly $400 million wiped out in 24 hours, including $310 million over the last 4 hours. The move ranged from $87,100 to $90,300.

On December 17, 2025, analyst Benjamin Cowen told his 969,000 YouTube followers that Bitcoin's bull phase is likely over. He cautioned a bear market could persist into October 2026 and projected a move toward $60,000–$70,000, citing the 200‑week Simple Moving Average. Cowen noted past cycle gains favored buyers from late 2022.

In the past 30 days, Bitcoin has fluctuated between $85,000 and $94,000, staying below the key $100,000 mark while analysts monitor signs of a possible rebound. Tom Lee views Bitcoin as extremely oversold, pointing to an RSI under 30 and historical patterns that have previously led to average rebounds of about 25% within 60 days. With BTC recently trading around $89,972.73 and volatility driven by whale activity, market participants are watching whether support near $85,000 and a recovery before year's end can hold.