CME FedWatch: 74.3% odds the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July; September hike probability seen at 46.2%
AI Market Summary
CME FedWatch probabilities indicate the market still expects a July hold, but assigns meaningful odds to renewed tightening by September. This keeps short-dated rate volatility elevated and reinforces sensitivity to incoming inflation and labor data. The policy path uncertainty can support the US dollar and constrain risk appetite in the near term, as traders reprice terminal rate expectations and duration risk across assets.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCSIDXY2USD/USDT-0.10%
AI Insight · NCSIDXY2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
Trade now
⚠️ AI-generated insights are based on news content and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or represent the views of BingX. Investing involves risk. Please trade responsibly.
CME's FedWatch Tool indicates markets are largely pricing in no change to U.S. interest rates at the Federal Reserve's July meeting. Data cited by CNBC show a 74.3% probability the Fed holds steady, versus 25.7% odds of a cumulative 25-basis-point increase.
Looking to September, FedWatch assigns a 42.9% chance of rates remaining unchanged. The probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike rises to 46.2%, while the odds of a cumulative 50-basis-point increase stand at 10.8%, according to the tool.
