The Bank of Japan's policy meeting on Tuesday strengthened market conviction that borrowing costs could rise by the end of the second quarter. The yen firmed on the shift, while bitcoin stayed on the back foot. As expected, the BoJ left its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%. The vote was not unanimous: three board members favored raising rates at this meeting, producing a 6–3 split—the widest dissent since Kazuo Ueda became governor. The decision is being read as a sign that support for higher rates is spreading within the board. The central bank also lifted its core inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 2.8%, while cutting its growth outlook to 0.5% from 1%. Officials' more hawkish tone is tied in part to war-related disruption risks to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which have pushed global energy prices higher and intensified inflation pressures in energy-importing economies such as Japan. Markets moved quickly: traders priced a 74% probability of a rate increase on June 16. Bloomberg News reported that BoJ watchers had broadly anticipated a June hike even before the announcement. The yen strengthened, sending USD/JPY down nearly 0.5% to 158.95—a notable move among major currencies. Rate hikes, or the prospect of them, typically support a currency. In crypto, BTC/JPY on bitFlyer slipped 0.6% to 12.28 million yen, broadly in line with softness in dollar-based bitcoin prices, according to TradingView. Yen moves draw close attention because the currency has long served as a funding source. Persistent yen strength is often linked to risk-off behavior, reflecting the potential unwinding of yen-funded carry trades—positions built when investors borrowed cheaply in yen during the BoJ's years of ultra-low rates and deployed capital into higher-yielding assets abroad. Carry-trade unwinds were widely cited as a drag on global risk assets in August 2024, when bitcoin dropped from $65,000 to $50,000 within a week. With June hike expectations rising again, some fear a repeat episode of carry-driven risk aversion. Recent flow data points the other way. February figures show Japan continued adding to U.S. Treasury holdings, suggesting yen-funded strategies remain in place. "Japan, the largest foreign holder, raised its stockpile by +$14 billion, to $1.24 trillion, the highest since February 2022. This marks Japan's 13th monthly purchase of the last 14 months, as Japanese institutions continue chasing higher yields overseas," the founders of newsletter service LondonCryptoClub said. "As we have said, there is no “JPY carry unwind” trade. Those who are talking about that don't understand how Japanese investors operate and you should ignore them," they added.

April 28 — President Donald Trump appeared to moderate his recent criticism of prediction markets, arguing the U.S. risks falling behind if it stays on the sidelines. Speaking to reporters in Florida, Trump said other countries are already embracing prediction markets and warned that "if the U.S. doesn't, we'll be left behind." He added that some "very smart people" support the product. The comments mark a shift from April 24, when Trump said he was "unhappy" with prediction markets and argued that "the whole world has become a bit like a casino." Activity on platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi has accelerated. The two reported a combined record trading volume of $23.6 billion in March. Donald Trump Jr. has invested in Polymarket and serves as an advisor to the platform, and is also an advisor to Kalshi. Trump Media has also announced a partnership with Crypto.com to roll out prediction-market products on Truth Social.

UPDATE: The CLARITY Act is running into a compressed 9–10 week window in the Senate before the August recess. A markup is expected in May, raising questions about whether the bill can clear the chamber in time.

UPDATE: The CLARITY Act is working against a tight 9–10 week Senate schedule ahead of the August recess. A markup is now expected in May, putting pressure on lawmakers to move the bill fast enough to clear the chamber in time.

The Trump administration is moving forward with plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, with a formal strategy expected within the next two months, according to a Bybit weekly report. The White House has confirmed it intends to designate roughly 200,000 BTC seized through government enforcement actions as a national reserve asset. White House digital asset adviser Patrick Witt said at the Bitcoin 2026 conference that a major reserve-related announcement is anticipated in the coming weeks, as legal and legislative groundwork continues. The final implementation will hinge on forthcoming official documentation.

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis said he will oppose the Senate's emerging crypto market structure package unless it includes ethics provisions limiting how White House officials can engage with digital assets, Politico reported. Tillis, a senior member of the Senate Banking Committee and set to retire early next year, said the bill should not advance without explicit ethics language. Sen. Ruben Gallego, a Democrat, backed that stance, arguing there will be no final agreement without bipartisan consensus on an ethics provision. The House passed its version in July under the name the CLARITY Act. In the Senate, the draft under discussion would split oversight of crypto markets between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Negotiations have dragged on, with disputes focused on ethics guardrails and the treatment of stablecoin yield payments. Lawmakers from both parties have cited potential conflicts of interest involving political figures and the crypto industry. Democrats have also pointed to crypto ventures linked to the Trump family and have pushed to use the legislation to address what they describe as conflicts. Talks on ethics language are continuing, though final wording has not been settled. "We're making progress," Sen. Adam Schiff told Politico, saying that as other portions of the bill come together, differences on ethics are narrowing. Schiff has previously endorsed a broad ethics framework that could bar federal employees from sponsoring, endorsing, or issuing certain digital assets, restrictions that could extend to the president. He noted the president has publicly engaged with memecoins and NFT projects bearing his name. Beyond ethics, the regulatory blueprint remains a key flashpoint. The CLARITY Act's approach to formally dividing jurisdiction between the CFTC and SEC continues to draw debate over potential gaps, preemption, and how complex instruments such as stablecoins should be handled. Market participants are also focused on how agencies including the SEC, DOJ, and CFTC would coordinate enforcement across securities law, commodities rules, and anti-money-laundering standards. Exchanges, compliance teams, and financial institutions are watching for implications for licensing, cross-border operations, and bank-crypto integration. The debate is also unfolding against an international backdrop as other jurisdictions advance their own ethics and disclosure rules for political contributions and crypto-related sponsorships. Canada, for example, has moved to advance legislation addressing crypto political donations. Industry groups say a sweeping U.S. ethics regime could raise compliance expectations for political communications and asset endorsements, with knock-on effects for governance, lobbying disclosures, and conflict-of-interest controls. For now, the Senate bill's path depends on whether lawmakers can reach a bipartisan deal on ethics guardrails. The outcome is expected to shape how oversight is allocated between the CFTC and SEC, how digital-asset products are treated under U.S. securities and commodities laws, and how compliance burdens evolve for crypto firms and financial institutions operating in the United States.

Foresight News reported that the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, citing its official website, will hold an executive session at 22:00 Beijing time on April 29 to vote on the nomination of Waugh to serve as Chair of the Federal Reserve and as a member of the Board of Governors. If approved at the committee level, the nomination would then move to a vote by the full Senate, followed by a formal presidential appointment. (Source: Foresight News)

Rep. Nick Begich said he plans to reintroduce the #BITCOIN Act in the coming weeks, renaming the proposal the American Reserves Modernization Act (ARMA).

The Bank of Japan held its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.75%, citing uncertainty from the Iran war and rising energy prices, Cointelegraph reported.