Polymarket traders have wagered $154.44 million on whether the U.S. and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal by various deadlines through December 31, 2026. On May 23, 2026, President Donald Trump said his choice was a "solid 50/50" between accepting a diplomatic agreement and resuming strikes, while bitcoin rose 1.5% and moved back above $77,000. BTC hit an intraday high of $77,303 on Bitstamp at 4:30 p.m. ET.

Bitcoin rebounded above $77,000 on May 24, 2026 after sliding to $74,500 on Saturday and then recovering within hours. The move followed Donald Trump's remarks about a near-finalized U.S.-Iran peace understanding that referenced reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Data also showed $328.97M in liquidations for the day, including $190M in longs and $138.97M in shorts.

Pseudonymous onchain trader 'Evaded' reportedly closed long positions in HYPE, ZEC, and ETH, realizing a combined $4.6 million profit. The trader then opened a 990 BTC short on Hyperliquid valued at about $74.84 million, which later showed $783,000 in unrealized gains at the time it was flagged. The positioning comes as bitcoin faced pressure amid $209 million in long liquidations and continued U.S. spot BTC ETF outflows.

Bitcoin traded around $75,800 at publication, down nearly 40% from the roughly $126,000 peak set in October 2025. After BTC dipped under the $75,000–$76,000 support band, Michaël van de Poppe said a move toward $60,000 is possible unless price climbs back to at least $76,600. Other analysts pointed to mixed signals, including CME futures gaps above spot and BTC trading below key EMAs.

Bitcoin is showing renewed weakness as sellers keep pressure on a key technical area, putting nearby support zones at risk. Analysts say a break below $74,929 could validate bearish reversal structures and potentially extend losses toward $71,000–$68,000, while upside attempts would need to reclaim $78,213 and later face resistance at $98,000 and $107,000–$109,000.

Bitcoin has failed to reclaim $80,000–$82,000 after 12 days of consolidation there, and it has since printed lower lows. Open Interest has risen from $6.4 billion to $8.96 billion since March, while spot net flow over the past 30 days is negative $1.19 billion, pointing to more withdrawals to private wallets than exchange deposits. Even so, apparent demand remains minimal, keeping the rebound signals tentative rather than decisive.

Bitcoin fell below $77,000 over the past 24 hours, pressuring treasury-linked stocks such as MicroStrategy (MSTR), which dropped about 3% as risk-off sentiment spread. Peter Schiff criticized MSTR on X over its roughly $64 billion Bitcoin exposure, while the BTC/gold backdrop and Bitcoin ETP flows continued to show relative strength versus gold.

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 for the first time since mid-April, sliding more than 3% in the past 24 hours to $74,255 after trading above $77,000 earlier. The selloff weighed on major tokens and coincided with $941 million in 24-hour derivatives liquidations, dominated by long positions and led by Bitcoin- and Ethereum-linked contracts.