Poor outlook for smaller West African cocoa crops pushes ICE futures higher on Monday
AI Market Summary
ICE cocoa futures settled higher as early 2026/27 West Africa crop surveys point to weaker Ivory Coast output (around 1.8 MMT, down 18% y/y) and El Niño-driven weather risks, reinforcing expectations for a much smaller global surplus. Offsetting factors include larger Ghana 2025/26 harvest, higher Ivory Coast port arrivals, and elevated ICE inventories, while demand signals were mixed across regions.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT+3.83%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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A weaker production outlook in smaller West African countries lifted ICE cocoa futures to a higher close on Monday. Early assessments put output for the new season at just 1.8 MMT, down 18% year on year, sharpening concerns about tighter supply. Even with Ghana’s 2025/26 harvest up 25.6% to 750,000 MT, Ivory Coast port arrivals up 20% to 2.11 MMT in the current marketing year, and Nigeria’s June exports up 30%, market attention has shifted toward the expected drop in the coming season.
