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Goldman Sachs sees Strait of Hormuz oil flows rebounding to 70% of prewar 20 million bpd

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may recover to only about 70% of their prewar level after the US-Iran war ends, Goldman Sachs said. That implies a rebound to about 14 million barrels a day versus roughly 20 million barrels a day before the conflict, while visible flows are currently estimated at about 1.3 million barrels a day. The rest of the region’s exports are being routed via the Red Sea, the Gulf of Oman and Turkey as producers expand infrastructure designed to bypass the chokepoint. The UAE has outlined plans aimed at eliminating its reliance on Hormuz altogether, a shift Goldman said could create a lasting constraint on effective global supply.
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Geopolitics