A 1% rise in the Indian rupee against the U.S. dollar, driven by FCNR deposit inflows, has weighed on rupee-denominated gold and silver prices. India’s spot gold fell 4% over eight trading sessions to ₹1,54,884, while silver also dropped 4% to ₹2,35,456. Over the same period, U.S. spot gold slid 3% to $4,523 an ounce, pointing to broader weakness in global bullion prices. The pullback ahead of the festive season is influencing consumer buying behaviour, with some holding off purchases amid uncertainty.

New York raw sugar futures retreated sharply from a 17-month high, falling as much as 4.8% intraday for the biggest drop since May. Prices had surged more than 21% last month after India allowed up to 1 million tons of duty-free raw sugar imports, stoking concerns about tight supply. But softer domestic prices in India have damped expectations for overseas purchases, with Rabobank estimating actual imports at 500,000 to 600,000 tons.

BMI raised its 2026 average coffee price forecast to 307 cents a pound, citing a strengthening El Nino and historically thin inventories. It expects global coffee production to rise 6% to 188.9 million bags in 2026-27, led by Brazil, where output is seen up 14.1% to 71.9 million bags, while Vietnam is forecast to edge up to 31.9 million bags. BMI sees Brazil’s 2027-28 crop slipping 5.1% to 68 million bags, narrowing the global surplus from 14.4 million bags to 9.2 million bags and keeping prices supported.

Retail and wholesale sugar prices in India continued to fall as weak demand left mills with few buyers for offers above ₹4,400 a quintal. Under new fortnightly quota rules, mills must sell 40 per cent of the Food Ministry’s allocation in the first week, adding pressure to cut prices. The Centre has also allowed duty-free imports of 1 million tonnes of raw sugar until October 31, weighing further on the domestic market. Global sugar prices on ICE New York rose to 18.26 cents a pound.

India’s domestic wheat prices rose by ₹150 per quintal after the government lifted its export ban. FOB wheat at Kandla is quoted at $325 a tonne, well above $295 a tonne or less from other origins. Wheat output this year is estimated at a record 120.66 million tonnes and government procurement has reached 36 million tonnes. Chicago Board of Trade wheat was quoted at $7.54 a bushel, or $277 a tonne.

Global coffee prices climbed sharply in July, with the ICO Composite Indicator Price average up 15.4% month on month to 287.26 US cents a pound, according to the International Coffee Organisation. Colombian Milds and Brazilian Naturals led Arabica gains, rising 18.1% and 17.9%, respectively. In India, premiums for Robusta Parchment AB widened to $1300-$1500 per tonne. The ICO warned that weather factors including a strengthening El Niño outlook could affect upcoming crops in Asia and South America.

HDFC Bank shares rose nearly 3% in early trade on Monday after the lender said CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan will not seek reappointment when his current term ends in late October. The stock climbed to ₹739.75 from the previous close of ₹720.30 before trimming gains. Investors are focusing on the bank’s succession plans following the announcement.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, suggesting further rate hikes could be needed if inflation does not clearly move back toward the 2% target. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $44,423.84 per ounce, near a two-week low, while U.S. gold futures dropped 1.3% to $4,472.90. Markets now price a 57% chance of a September rate hike, up from 36% before Warsh’s remarks, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The Indian rupee is set to come under pressure this week as investors reassess the chance of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike and Brent crude climbs back toward $90 a barrel. At home, a Reuters poll forecasts April–June GDP growth of 7.1%, slower than the prior quarter, though some economists expect a stronger reading that could tilt the RBI toward tightening if inflation rises. Government bonds also look vulnerable, with traders warning that firmer growth could trigger further selling.