CFTC’s June 10 draft rules could curb Robinhood’s fast-growing prediction markets business

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on June 10 released draft rules for prediction markets that would subject each event contract to a “public interest” review, covering mainstream categories such as World Cup betting and Federal Reserve rate decisions. The framework could significantly limit the expansion of Robinhood’s prediction markets business, its fastest-growing segment by revenue. Bernstein estimates the segment could generate $586 million in revenue in 2026, up from $150 million in 2025, representing about 17% of transaction-based revenue. The proposal is in a 45-day public comment period, but the regulatory uncertainty is already weighing on growth expectations.