Polymarket withdraws $650K nuclear detonation market as Kalshi Iran bets fuel CFTC rule push

In the week before March 5, 2026, Polymarket removed a prediction market that had attracted over $650,000 in volume on whether a nuclear weapon would be detonated by specific future dates. Around the same period, Kalshi faced political backlash over a market tied to whether Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would be "out" after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, and later offered refunds. The controversies have coincided with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission advancing a rulemaking process to set federal standards for prediction markets.