Iran says the Strait of Hormuz is closed as Trump says 9 million barrels a day are still leaving
AI Market Summary
Iran claims the Strait of Hormuz is closed, but U.S. officials argue substantial volumes still exit via dark transits, ship-to-ship transfers, and upgraded pipelines, keeping total flows below pre-war levels but not collapsed. The gap between rhetoric and observed exports reduces immediate worst-case supply-shock risk, yet opacity and renewed attacks keep volatility elevated across global crude and shipping risk premia.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDT-0.97%
AI Insight · NCCO1OILBRENT2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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Iran says the Strait of Hormuz has been shut down, but U.S. President Donald Trump says 9 million barrels of oil a day are still getting out. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a post on X on Tuesday that the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait was almost 9 million barrels per day. Axios reported on Sunday, citing U.S. officials, that about 8 million barrels are leaving each night via a southern lane with U.S. help, while pipeline exports run about 4 million barrels per day, putting total flows at about 15 million barrels per day versus 20 million barrels per day before the conflict.
