Data from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Kpler show Persian Gulf crude exports have returned to prewar levels, with September flows averaging 16.5 million to 19 million barrels per day. About 40% of crude is now shipped via pipeline routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, up from 17% before the war. Of the crude that still crossed Hormuz in August, more than 70% switched tankers offshore. Markets are also watching whether Iran could resort to more extreme action.

The cost of insuring against a French sovereign default has risen to the highest level among major EU countries and the U.K., while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.989%, its highest since 2002. The yield premium over comparable German bonds widened to 152 basis points, the largest since the eurozone debt crisis in 2011. Investors have also focused on weak growth, a budget deficit estimated at about 5.4% of GDP, and a debt-to-GDP ratio expected to rise to 122% next year from 119% this year. The government’s latest plan has not stopped the jump in yields as investors question its credibility, according to Macquarie Group strategist Thierry Wizman.

Robinhood is rolling out AI trading agents powered by OpenAI and Anthropic models to millions of users, allowing people to use natural-language prompts to carry out tasks ranging from basic trades to more complex automated strategies. The agents are already handling nearly 30 million transactions per day on the platform. Robinhood plans to offer the lower-end model for free until the end of the year, while charging standard token rates for the higher-tier OpenAI and Anthropic agents.

Microsoft has introduced a Copilot “super app” that consolidates AI chat, task tools and coding into a single interface for business users, alongside a new Autopilot feature that adds agent-like capabilities. Autopilot will begin with limited user testing, and a broader rollout will depend on how testers rate the tools. The coding tool is set to reach Microsoft 365 Premium and Pro subscribers via a test program later this year. In July, Microsoft said Microsoft 365 Copilot had surpassed 30 million paid seats, with net seats added doubling quarter over quarter.

Nvidia-backed “neocloud” company Nscale has filed for a New York listing and is seeking a valuation of up to $35 billion. Its prospectus shows a net loss of $1.02 billion in the six months to June 30, 2026, and management at one point flagged “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern. Nscale signed a $3.1 billion subscription agreement on September 15, with Nvidia investing $1 billion via convertible notes or nonvoting shares. The company says it has $103 billion in contracts, though most are not yet firm.

With the Iran war in its seventh month, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is shrinking even as Gulf oil export demand remains pressing. Baltic Exchange data this week show the daily charter rate for a very large crude carrier hauling oil from the Persian Gulf to China rose to $1.035 million, versus about $208,000 per day for a comparable route. Higher insurance costs and industry consolidation have helped push freight rates higher as supply constraints lift oil back above $100 per barrel and diesel prices top $6 for the first time, up 60% from before the war.

OpenAI is in talks with investors about a new funding round that would value the company at $1.2 trillion. CEO Sam Altman has said safety concerns make this a poor moment to go public and that the company does not feel pressure to do so. OpenAI raised $122 billion in March at a valuation of $852 billion.

Williams Sonoma and TJX are using portions of their tariff refunds to bolster employee compensation and benefits. Williams Sonoma said it will set aside $10 million for one-time payments into eligible employees’ 401(k) accounts. TJX said it accrued incremental expenses of $112 million for year-end incentive compensation and discretionary bonuses after receiving $331 million in refunds.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5% on Monday for the first time since 2023 as the Iran war kept lifting oil prices, with Brent crude jumping as much as 4% to nearly $110 a barrel. With inflation running above the Federal Reserve’s target for more than five years, policymakers are seen as less willing to wait for price pressures to fade. The 5% yield threshold also weighed on tech shares, with chipmakers leading losses, and higher yields are making equity financing more difficult for companies.