WTI rebounded modestly on short covering as the dollar softened, but the broader setup remains pressured by a rapid normalization in Persian Gulf exports, record Russian crude exports, and improving US-Iran diplomacy that reduces geopolitical risk premia. Additional headwinds include potential OPEC+ quota increases and higher expected US output, partly offset by ongoing Ukrainian strikes disrupting Russian refining and below-average US product inventories.
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NCCO1OILWTI2USD/USDT+0.56%
AI Insight · NCCO1OILWTI2USD/USDTAI Insight
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WTI crude rose +0.16% on Thursday as the dollar weakened and short covering emerged. The market still faced heavy bearish pressure as Middle East supply flows continued to recover, with Saudi exports at 90% of prewar levels and the UAE back to full prewar levels. Prices were also weighed by record Russian crude exports of 4.13 million bpd and signs of progress in Iran nuclear talks. Iraq also warned it could leave OPEC if it does not receive a higher output quota.