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The Hindu Business Line

BMI lifts 2026 average coffee price forecast to 307 cents/lb as El Nino and low stocks tighten supply outlook

AI Market Summary
BMI (Fitch Solutions) raised its 2026 average coffee price forecast as strengthening El Nino, historically thin inventories, and rising downside production risks—especially for Asian robusta—tighten the supply outlook. While 2026/27 output is projected to rise on a strong Brazil crop, focus is shifting to a weaker 2027/28 cycle with Brazil's arabica off-year and a narrowing global surplus, supporting firmer near-term pricing conditions.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDT-3.67%
AI Insight · NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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BMI raised its 2026 average coffee price forecast to 307 cents a pound, citing a strengthening El Nino and historically thin inventories. It expects global coffee production to rise 6% to 188.9 million bags in 2026-27, led by Brazil, where output is seen up 14.1% to 71.9 million bags, while Vietnam is forecast to edge up to 31.9 million bags. BMI sees Brazil’s 2027-28 crop slipping 5.1% to 68 million bags, narrowing the global surplus from 14.4 million bags to 9.2 million bags and keeping prices supported.
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