ICE cocoa futures rebound as West Africa crop outlook points to a 1.8 MMT 2026/27 season
AI Market Summary
Cocoa futures rebounded as early West Africa 2026/27 crop surveys point to weak pod development and El Niño risks, with Ghana output seen materially lower and global surplus forecasts cut sharply. Support is tempered by strong near-term supply signals: Ghana's larger 2025/26 harvest, rising ICE inventories, and higher Ivory Coast and Nigeria exports. Demand indicators are mixed across regions, keeping the rally fundamentally supported but not one-sided.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDT+3.83%
AI Insight · NCCOCOCOA2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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ICE cocoa futures in New York and London rebounded as assessments of the new West African crop pointed to weak pod development. The market is pricing 2026/27 output at 1.8 MMT, down 18% from the prior season. Separately, Ghana’s cocoa board said 750,000 MT has been harvested for 2025/26, up 25.6% year on year, while Ivory Coast shipments to ports totaled 2.11 MMT in the current marketing year, up 20%. Nigerian cocoa exports in June rose 30% year on year.
