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The Straits Times

ICE arabica coffee stocks fall to 224,011 bags on Aug 28, the lowest since May 2000

AI Market Summary
ICE-certified arabica inventories fell to 224,011 bags, the lowest since May 2000, underscoring acute near-term physical tightness and supporting front-month premiums. Despite expectations for a sizable 2026/27 surplus led by Brazil, delayed harvest, quality issues, and producer holding behavior constrain deliverable supply. Low transparent stocks can amplify futures volatility via systematic fund buying and short-covering dynamics.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDT-0.02%
AI Insight · NCCOCOFFEE2USD/USDTAI Insight
▲ Bullish
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ICE data show arabica coffee inventories fell to 224,011 60kg bags on Aug 28, the lowest since May 2000, as dealers competed for scarce spot supply. The drawdown has helped keep benchmark arabica futures above US$3 per lb for the past couple of months. The market expects a global surplus of 8.2 million bags in the 2026/27 season, largely on hopes of a record Brazilian crop, but tight physical availability persists.
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